Stock price when the opinion was issued
Shares fell this year, because many felt its food was too expensive. This morning, they reported disappointing same-store sales, a big sales miss and earnings miss, but shares jumped nearly 4% today. Why? The rally is broadening beyond tech/AI. Also, the street expected MCD's bad numbers, and they introduce $5 Value Meals.
He added at $250 a month ago. With inflation the lower income population shifted more to eating at home and away from fast food restaurants. McDonalds is now moving to more value priced deals and encouraging people to shift to digital offerings, apps, to increase the use of a loyalty program. McDonalds has a unique business model in that it owns the land that the franchises sit on. 40% of its revenue comes from rent from the franchises. Buy 28 Hold 13 Sell 0
(Analysts’ price target is $295.39)MCD reported an E. coli outbreak from its quarter pounder burger across 10 US states. The outbreak started between late September and mid-October. MCD has temporarily stopped using certain ingredients in affected areas. The stock fell sharply the day following the news, and it is currently down 5% (an $11B market cap loss) from just prior to the news.
We do not feel that the outbreak warrants an $11B loss to the stock, particularly over the long-term, but the stock has run up nicely over the past few months, and this could partially be profit-taking in conjunction with the news release. We would prefer to see the stock find a floor before entering a position, but over the long-term, we would be comfortable holding the name.
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He likes the company and it is a very resilient business. Management is world-class and are always innovating and finding ways to reinvent themselves. His concern is the valuation. Trading at 15X on an EV to EBITDA basis, which doesn’t give a lot of room for error. He would like to see a pullback before getting in. 2.3% dividend yield.