McDonaldsMCDCOMMENTAug 22, 2016Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 04, 2026. Market Open.
Half its business is NA, half international. Not a huge amount of growth, perhaps 5-6%. EPS growth of 7-8%. Opens a few new stores a year. More of a landlord, with over 90% franchised. Very high ROIC.
Only 20x PE today, down from historically high 20s. In his world, it's a staple not discretionary :) Yield is 2.65%.
Was downgraded last Friday and today over fears they won't meet expectations this quarter, including disappointment over MCD's new chicken strips dish, that it won't turn things around. Rather, customer prefer heavily breaded chicken and the find these strips ugly. However, history says it has never paid to downgrade MCD. It's the king, offering good value and is highly well-run. The CEO will figure it out.
Had a great run for the last year or so when the new CEO came in and turned things around. The all-day breakfast has been a phenomenal hit for them. Now that it is trading in the low 20s multiple, the question is how much can it really keep growing and how much of margin expansion opportunities are there for them in their core market of the US. The question is, what is their next trick?