McDonaldsMCDTOP PICKJan 19, 2016Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 05, 2026. Market Open.
Half its business is NA, half international. Not a huge amount of growth, perhaps 5-6%. EPS growth of 7-8%. Opens a few new stores a year. More of a landlord, with over 90% franchised. Very high ROIC.
Only 20x PE today, down from historically high 20s. In his world, it's a staple not discretionary :) Yield is 2.65%.
Was downgraded last Friday and today over fears they won't meet expectations this quarter, including disappointment over MCD's new chicken strips dish, that it won't turn things around. Rather, customer prefer heavily breaded chicken and the find these strips ugly. However, history says it has never paid to downgrade MCD. It's the king, offering good value and is highly well-run. The CEO will figure it out.
A global consumer name. A giant ship that is slowly getting turned around and going in the right direction. Recently reported same-store sales up 4% in the last quarter, the strongest quarter since 2012. Once that starts to happen, it generally goes on for many quarters. They are trying lots of creative things in their stores. The breakfast is doing very well, and they can roll that out internationally. Culturally it is becoming much more flexible. Food inflation is a big benefit to them. Increased minimum wage in 20 states is good for their customer base. Dividend has grown about 9% a year over the last 5 years. Bought back 5% of their stock last year and are highly unlikely to be hurt by weakness in China and emerging markets. Dividend yield of 3%.