McDonaldsMCDTOP PICKAug 28, 2015Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 05, 2026. Market Open.
Half its business is NA, half international. Not a huge amount of growth, perhaps 5-6%. EPS growth of 7-8%. Opens a few new stores a year. More of a landlord, with over 90% franchised. Very high ROIC.
Only 20x PE today, down from historically high 20s. In his world, it's a staple not discretionary :) Yield is 2.65%.
Was downgraded last Friday and today over fears they won't meet expectations this quarter, including disappointment over MCD's new chicken strips dish, that it won't turn things around. Rather, customer prefer heavily breaded chicken and the find these strips ugly. However, history says it has never paid to downgrade MCD. It's the king, offering good value and is highly well-run. The CEO will figure it out.
In this environment with a lot of volatility, he likes the 3.53%.dividend support. Thinks the new CEO is going to turn the business around. They say they are getting good traction in China again, and in spite of all the currency headwinds, it is a very strong dynamic franchise. Thinks the company will be much more aggressive regarding its balance sheet and increasing its dividend. Will have a lot more capital discipline in terms of how many stores they own, versus how many stores they franchise.