McDonaldsMCDDON'T BUYAug 13, 2012Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 05, 2026. Market Open.
Half its business is NA, half international. Not a huge amount of growth, perhaps 5-6%. EPS growth of 7-8%. Opens a few new stores a year. More of a landlord, with over 90% franchised. Very high ROIC.
Only 20x PE today, down from historically high 20s. In his world, it's a staple not discretionary :) Yield is 2.65%.
Was downgraded last Friday and today over fears they won't meet expectations this quarter, including disappointment over MCD's new chicken strips dish, that it won't turn things around. Rather, customer prefer heavily breaded chicken and the find these strips ugly. However, history says it has never paid to downgrade MCD. It's the king, offering good value and is highly well-run. The CEO will figure it out.
One of the things that has made this market tricky is that a number of key themes have continued to work (more or less, the yield themes) but the market has narrowed meaning fewer and fewer of these themes continue to work. One of these is the consumer discretionary theme. This stock has had a very strong move over the last couple of years and over the last few months has started to disappoint on the revenue and earnings sides. You want to give this theme more time.