Mike Vinokur, CFA, CMT, and CFPMarriott International Inc.MARWEAK BUYJan 07, 2025
Great management running a capital-lite business. MAR puts their name on a hotel that others manage. A great business model. His one caveat is that hotels are a cyclical industry; if revenge travel ends, forward earnings could disappoint. US travel is strong, but not Europe. He's cautious about travel. He's surprised that with Airbnb and VRBO that hotel rates are so high.
Was upgraded today. In the economy, the wealthier consumer is hanging in. AI will continue to benefit higher-end consumers. Marriott is asset-lite and is a permanent compounder. Has owned this for 10 years.
It reports Tuesday. Often when it reports, shares go down, even on a good report. And usually it's a buying opportunity, but wait until the day after the report.
Has owned this for a long time and sees more upside. Trades at a high 24x PE and 14% 2025 earnings growth. But it's an asset-lite cash cow with growth.
Just sold it though they have a great business model and travel remains strong, but they lag their peers. He held this for a long time and decided to take profits.
The market prefers Growth at a Reasonable Price (GARP) stock as rates rise and tech is unfashionable. The PEG ratio is a key metric. These shares pay big dividends or buyback shares. It hasn't yet returned to pre-Covid levels, but it had a great last quarter. They've been adding capacity, so they're bullish and they face the travel reopening. They halted their dividend in 2020, but will very like reinstate it this year. It trades under 30x earnings, but this enjoys a strong earnings growth rebound.
Play consumer discretionary through travel? He owns little travel, but there is a lot of pent-up demand. Lots of runway. He owns Marriott, but Carnival is an opportunity.
If the Omicron variant does not slow down the economy and the market snaps back, then buy... Wait for the first Omicron case in the US to buy a good entry point.
Great management running a capital-lite business. MAR puts their name on a hotel that others manage. A great business model. His one caveat is that hotels are a cyclical industry; if revenge travel ends, forward earnings could disappoint. US travel is strong, but not Europe. He's cautious about travel. He's surprised that with Airbnb and VRBO that hotel rates are so high.