Stockchase Opinions

Keith RichardsLloyds TSB Group PLCLYGDON'T BUYJul 09, 2018

He got out of AEG because it started to break down. This one is not looking hugely positive right now so he would avoid it.

$3.36

Stock price when the opinion was issued

$5.34

As of Jun 09, 2026. Market Open.

banks
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RISKY
In the US and UK, much more competition than in Canada. Think about 0% interest levels in Europe, plus not paying a dividend. If there's a bailout, these stocks are going to run. But it's risky. All the banks are going to be challenged, regardless of geography.
BUY
The consensus is that the UK will have a successful exit at the end of the month. With that, there is a backdrop where the political overhang will be removed and the economy has a chance to restructure and the situation afterwards will probably be better. LYG-T is primarily exposed to UK companies.
BUY
It's much more of a retail bank in the UK. Cheap now, trading at 1x book. Nobody knows what'll happen, but there's a feeling that Brexit will finally happen. With LYG, you're betting on the UK. Good time to buy now at low valuations.
BUY
All the European banks are struggling with a negative yield curve and spot rates negative. Brexit will solve itself, they will probably leave, and then things will go back to normal. He would position for that if you believe things will stabilize.
BUY
Brexit? If you are buying a UK bank, this is a good one. It trades just below NAV. The EU looks they might give until January to complete Brexit. This would cause the UK pound to strengthen. It would be a good buy here.
BUY
More of a UK bank. Suffered because of Brexit and insurance policies they sold in 2008. One of best retail franchises around. Sold of most international assets. Cleaned up balance sheet, restructured. Good yield. Time to get into UK banks at a low multiple before Brexit gets solved.
DON'T BUY
Will it go up after Brexit? Used to own it maybe till 2015. He expected them to release capital and raise their dividend, but they didn't that much. They were unsuccessful in cross-selling their clients across mortgages, lines of credit and investment accounts. Overall, LYG hasn't done well since then.
BUY
There is so much regulation in Europe they are becoming more like utilities. They are required to hold larger reserves, for example. US banks for reemerged faster than European banks only because they hit the crisis two years earlier. The European economy is slow, but high-quality banks like this one could be a good quality buy. They are raising dividends as well.
WATCH
He would lump it into European banks. It is part of the EU until BREXIT happens. The European bank has done nothing in terms of normalizing rates. BREXIT may help them more than other EU banks.
DON'T BUY

He sold in 2013/14 because cross selling did not work. They were going to increase returns to shareholders and that did not materialize. As a British bank they are in a better position than a European bank. But he does not want to be a British bank because the American markets have access to your capital. He thinks the outperformance of non-Canadian banks is probably over.

HOLD

Indicators are suggesting we are moving down. Any action will be capped at $4. The general trend has a lot of overhead resistance. See if it can base. If you want to buy it, wait.

DON'T BUY

He sold in 2014-5. The bank was working off the bad loan book and releasing capital, and selling off bad loans. They hoping to return their book of business back to growth. Because they'd underwritten most UK mortgages, they hopes that by cross-selling they could grow their share. That didn't work, so he exited.

COMMENT

Lloyds Bank ADS (LYG-N) vs the S&P 500. Lloyds is a British Bank with a strong retail franchise in the US. Probably the S&P 500 could make sense for a retail investor. It is a difficult thing to compare because one is an index and the other is a single stock.

DON'T BUY

He sold his Lloyd’s shares several years ago. He invested with the expectation of some catalysts: that they would expand their business by increasing the number of types of services they provided to each customer and that they would significantly increase their dividend. Neither increased to the extent that he had planned for and he doesn’t see significant catalysts for growth now. (Analysts’ price target is 76p compared to a current stock price of 67 pence).