Long Run Exploration (LRE.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

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Long Run Exploration (LRE.TO)

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25 watching

DON'T BUY

Stubbed their toe a couple of times on production misses. He went with other names.

HOLD

Well managed and has a nice production profile going forward. His issue with the juniors is that there is a time to be in them and a time not to be. With a sideways moving commodity it's hard to know where these are going.

STRONG BUY

Execution has been excellent. Incredibly cheap at about 4X enterprise value to cash flow on 2012 production. $12 would be fair value for this stock.

DON'T BUY

Has been a disappointing performer this year. Very levered to Viking plays in Saskatchewan and Alberta. A challenging play but fairly cheap wells to drill. Prefers others.

BUY

Recently merged with Orion Oil & Gas, which had a lot more production, which gives them more production and cash flow so they can drill some more of their targets. Should do all right with this over the next couple of years.

COMMENT

Hears very good things and is on his list to look at. Energy demands, both oil and natural gas, are going to remain strong.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick May 7/10. Up 13.89%.)

BUY

Oil leveraged. Vast majority of their pursuits is in the Viking formation in Saskatchewan. Credible management and starting to move the risk back on the Viking formation. Finally on the cusp of breaking through in early 2011.

TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Dec 14/10. Up 33.72%.) Most attractive investment opportunity in the oil/gas space in all of North America. Trading at 6X cash flow using this year’s production and 4.5X next year’s. Pur play in the Viking in 3 different areas. All 3 have had very successful well results. $12.25 to $16.

BUY

Quality name with long-term growth potential. Could see some short term weakness going in the spring break-up but there is potential growth on production on drilling further wells plus a potential down the road, a year or more, water flood to bring on more production.

BUY

A bit of a development story. In production and he would like to see if they can get production up on each one of their wells. Have a huge resource that he feels is in areas where there could be an interest in taking them out. Seeing the type curve move up in terms of production per well. A lot of upside in the story.

TOP PICK

Extremely cheap on current production at about 6.6X enterprise value to cash flow based on $90 oil versus peer average of about 8X, so dirt-cheap. Have 243 net sections in an extremely profitable play called Viking. Have a technique to stop ‘waxy’ from plugging wells with 50C water. Clean balance sheet.

TOP PICK

Are successfully implementing a technique for getting ‘waxy’ oil to stop plugging up wells through water heated to 50 C. This is an addition to the ‘fracing’ process, “hot water fracing”. Balance sheet is fine. 50% light oil. Sees upside of over 100%. Could be a take-out candidate.

TOP PICK

Play on the emerging Viking light oil. Managed to amass 200,000 undeveloped acres. Have a couple of hundred net drilling locations in Alberta and southern Saskatchewan. Some technical challenges they have to overcome but are well underway. About 40% of this year's oil production is hedged.

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