Bruce Murray Eli Lilly & Co. LLY-N TOP PICK Apr 17, 2025

He owns a small holding. Likes their growth profile from their weight-loss drug; they will continue to take market share from Novo Nordisk. The big news this week was that drug shortages were over. They lowered the price too. But shares are expensive at  20x PE on 2028 numbers--expensive for a pharmaceutical. It's had a big run, so he's not adding shares, but trimming.

Like TJX, their momentum is not unwinding, and shares will push to new all-time highs. It's on a streak now, of 7 straight days, that we haven't seen in 2 years.

Her best performer this month, with revenues growing 40%. Excellent balance sheet, drug pipeline and managers. She just entered this and will buy on dips.

This got expensive, so he reduced his holding at 50x PE, now at 35x. Is still overweight this, because he believes in the GLP franchise. Expects strong revenue growth over 2 years.

Loves healthcare for value and defense. Diabetes and obesity drugs continue to drive sales. Other new drugs boost earnings growth forecast. Sees 25% upside from here. Ranks 10/10 on fundamentals. Yield is 0.72%.

Hold both LLY and NOVO? No. Choose one or the other. LLY sells more diverse drugs and more North American focused.

It's one of the least-tariffed, least-dangerous stocks though the price is high. He sees upside.

They report Thursday. Their last report laid an egg, but expects this one to be better, so he will hold on.

The more successful of the GLP-1 stocks compared to NVO. Decent entry point. Trades in the 30s on forward PE, so there's a strong expectation of prescription growth; every reason to believe that's going to happen. 

Be cautious on position size; don't be aggressive. Stock was down 10% yesterday because NVO made a deal with CVS to become its prime recommended product for obesity. So NVO is starting to compete more on price.