Paul Harris, CFA Kraft Heinz Company KHC-Q PAST TOP PICK Dec 30, 2016

Very strong company with excellent brands.
Good long term investment.
Consumer staples business with defensive business model.
Recent earnings strong.

Oscar Meyer brand up for sale - will be interesting to see if full value is realized. Does not think it will be notable. Don't buy. 

It deserves to be struggling. It has the worst collection of brands. Shares deserve to go lower.

Folks over 25 have some nostalgia for the brands. Product offerings to the market have been challenged. Consumer has evolved to be more health-conscious. Despite yield of 5.5%, stock price is more indicative of its future.

Consumer staples are outperforming in the last few days, and that speaks to the advantage of having a balanced portfolio. Companies like KHC, UL, KVUE, and Nestle. It's not that they won't be affected (their costs would go up), but they're far less cyclical than other businesses. Earnings will be much more stable. Earnings could fall 10%, but not 50%. Dividends will be sustained.

Companies like Unilever and Nestle are huge in NA, but huge globally as well.

Gives you some cover at times like these. But on the other side, you're faced with changing food habits and GLP-1 drugs. May not be a lot of organic growth in this type of company. Chart is lumpy.

Will probably do well if recession. Not expensive at ~11x forward PE, but tends to always be cheap. Nice dividend yield. Very low ROC; won't get rid of underperforming brands. You're better off owning one of the grocers.

We're seeing the start of an M&A boom. The street yawned when they heard about the KHC deal, yawning that the company is breaking up, spinning off a part of its grocery business, but that's dead wrong. It will keep is fastest-growing brands like Heinz Ketchup and Philly Cream Cheese. The market sees no value in slower brands like Velveeta Cheese, but that's wrong.