Opinions
Terry Shaunessy
SPDR S&P Bank
KBE-N
COMMENT
Sep 21, 2018
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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US banks ETF? This is an excellent choice, because seasonality is really clicking in from about the middle of December right through until April of each year. The ETF’s that are most useful is the SPDR Financial (XLF-N). If you are looking for large caps, this one looks very interesting on the charts right now. Started having momentum in the last few days and is starting to outperform the market.
Financials have been slower to recover, only gaining strength in September-October. Still have a long way to go. If you believe we had a generational low in long-term interest rates, and we're just entering a reflationary cycle, insurance companies benefit as assets go up in price. Higher rates are really good. Also interesting are KRE and KIE. Most interesting is IAI, making new highs. As a group, financials have underperformed since 2007, so they should now have a tailwind in this environment.
KBE vs. KRE? Both US listed. KBE is basically the S&P US bank index. KRE is regional banks. Difference is regional banks are consumer oriented, like Canadian banks. They are not “big enough to fail.” They haven’t performed. US banks will probably perform, because they’re cheap. Either one would be fine, but the regional one is slightly less risky, KRE would probably be the better of the two.