Jim O'Shaughnessy Imperial Oil IMO-T PAST TOP PICK Jan 23, 2007

Good business. Alberta oil sands are low cost, long life, low decline. Refineries. Integrated, with benefit being that it takes the raw edge off commodity price sensitivity. Owns this indirectly through the back door, with an investment in XOM (major shareholder of IMO).

Modestly bullish on oil. Not his first choice, but no quarrels with it either.

Sideways trading range. Reported earnings today. Should not be affected as much by potential US tariffs, as energy may be exempt. Boring, blue chip. He likes energy, and this is a way to play. Yield is 2.9%.

Bought this around $92 with proceeds from CNQ. Attracted to the chart. A swing chart, easy to trade. Hopes it'll go to at least $105 or so, which is when he'd probably sell. Yield is 3%.

Performed very well. Aggressively buying back stock. Trades at a deserved premium. But today he'd prefer CNQ. Good tax-loss candidate. Very strong balance sheet. FCF today is not what it was.

This trades at a massive premium, which he doesn't understand. IMO is not attractive in terms of price-cash flow, dividend or free cash-flow yield. Look at Athabasca instead (see his comments).

(Note the short timeframe.)  This is a swing trade. Looking at the chart, you can see how the stock likes to go down to $90-ish, and then go up to $100-ish. That's 10% that you can trade and trade. He always buys on the bounce.

He feels that all oil will break out eventually. He's hoping to get $100 on this, though it's pulled back a bit. If it gets there, he'll probably sell and then get back in if it returns to the bottom. If it doesn't, his buy price was close to the bottom so he isn't losing anything.

Basic premise is that Canadian oil companies have unbelievable assets. Well north of 20% dividend growth. Great cashflow and shareholder returns. Oil's just broken a triple top on a point-and-figure chart, and these companies look as though they're about to reaccelerate. 

He'd buy this one, and he'd buy CNQ.