Robert McWhirter Intact Financial IFC-T DON'T BUY Jul 07, 2025

EPS growth rate is 18% this and next year, strong. They lead the industry in growth.

EPS of $4.93 beat estimates of $4.18 and revenues of $5.76B missed estiamtes of $5.93B. Its combined ratio was solid at 86.5%, mostly due to solid underlying results across all lines of business. Its ROE was 16.5%, and it incurred $1.5B in catastrophe losses from several natural disasters over the past year. There were no mentions of the LA wildfires in its earnings. As a shareholder, we would be very pleased with these results and the market seems to like the results. It trades at 17.5X forward earnings, on the higher end of its historical average, but the company continues to execute and both margins and free cash flow are great. We would be comfortable slowly averaging in here for a long-term hold.
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Earnings per share growth rate this year and next year is 18%. Wait for a pullback.

Just raised dividend again for about the 20th year in a row. Very strong Q4 underwriting, despite a year of catastrophic losses, shows how resilient the business model is. Great 16.5% ROE. Bit pricey here at 16x for 10% growth. Slightly overbought, buy on pullback.

Executing so well. High catastrophic losses, but ROE still at 16.5%. Underwriting beat. Strong Q4. Canadian and US commercial beat. Firing on all cylinders, resilient in this environment. Trading ~17.5x 2026, growing ~16%. Not a bad buy, but don't chase -- can probably get at $270.

Valuation is high. P&C insurance is very defensive, so it draws crowds when people get panicky in the market and the price gets bid up.  Wait for a better valuation.

It's delivered, and it's been a great acquisition story. He's not playing the insurance side as much right now. Food for thought:  what's autonomous driving going to do to rates and payouts? Theoretically, it should be positive. Could be a cornerstone of the financial part of your portfolio, but he doesn't own it right now on valuation.

There has been a decline in recent weeks due to lower revenue but the bottom line was not impacted and met expectations. There was an over-reaction to the report so it has become a buying opportunity, now trading at half below its norm for the past 5 to 10 years. It is one of the premium names in the insurance space and has very solid fundamentals.

Impressive management. The entire space is subject to the unpredictability of catastrophic losses. But this company has done great, able to manage all the risks. Post-pandemic inflationary environment helped (replacement costs went up, so premiums did too). 

Recent results were fine, but stock dropped. Could have just exhausted itself for now. May have to grow into the multiple. Or, if there's a market pullback and people are really scared, they might sell their winners because that's all they can sell with liquidity. In which case, some of the higher-valued stocks might be in for more of a drop. Or if the fear is just temporary, other stocks may be trimmed and the leaders continue to hold up well. We'll have to see.

Given the quality of the business, he'd certainly look at it on a material pullback. If you hold it now, don't let the current weakness shake you out. Likely to close the gap up, unless something dramatic happens in the macro or micro story.