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Ithaca Energy Inc. (IAE.TO)

BUY

Big development got pushed back about a quarter. Until 2014 it is trading at only 2 times cash flow, and then the major growth takes place. Good entry point.

HOLD

100% North sea oil. Extremely cheap. North sea producers do trade at a low cash flow multiple but this one is roughly 2X cash flow versus about 6X for a North American producer. NAV is somewhere in the neighbourhood of the mid-$3’s. You will need some patience but you will get rewarded as they are bringing on new production next year.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Oct 3/11. Up 27.45%.) Terrific management. Producing 5000 barrels a day out of the North sea. Have great growth ahead of them. Think they will eventually get taken out.

BUY

An old producer out of the UK North Sea and producing about 6000 barrels per day. Company was up for sale last year but didn’t get any bids this year which made the stock drop. Given the higher oil prices that they are getting with Brent prices, this is a good investment at these levels.

BUY

Market got excited with a non-binding takeover bid. Lots of stock moved over to momentum players and then it was taken down when deal didn't go through. Still trading below NAV and will probably go higher. It is a trading stock as well. Remember to take your profits.

PARTIAL BUY

A lot of technical points at these levels. She can see people taking profits however she still likes this name a lot. The big drop in June/July was when they brought the Athena well on to production and then hit a snag. Management is trying to unclog the well and she expects this to be completed soon, which would be a catalyst. At this level people will trade around it. Has been overbought on a technical basis but thinks it is still very cheap. She would suggest you buy a little bit here and later buy more.

BUY

One of the cheapest oil companies by price to projected cash flow. North Sea producer. Asset value is about $3.50. They are going to cash flow $2 a year out. There is a real good chance of it getting to $3 again. Good solid hold.

BUY

100% of production is from IK North Sea, 6k barrels/day. It is a pretty good entry point. Don’t buy it for a takeover possibility but for the fundamentals.

DON'T BUY

Rumours about a take out that turned out management refused. He exited half his position. It’s been tough in the north sea in terms of production.

WAIT
Wasn’t listening when everyone was saying ‘takeover’. Beat up pretty hard. You probably have pretty good value at these levels but if price of oil drops, this will be vulnerable.
STRONG BUY
Tied to price of oil. North sea oil. There was a thought they would be taken over by that has passed. It is trading less than half of its value. Had a problem with a hole and dipped this week. It is a fantastic entry point.
DON'T BUY
Going through a period of explosive growth in production but a press release today highlighted some challenges with one of their assets. Company is cheap now on a cash flow basis.
TOP PICK
$180 million in cash and have signed a $400 million line of credit. Will probably get 9,000 barrels a day in production this year and as much as 16,000 next year.
TOP PICK
Have just brought Athena into production. Stock is trading at about 3X cash flow. Opportunity to bring on production from 4000 barrels a day to 20,000 barrels a day. Attractive risk/reward. Looking for the stock to be over $3 a year out.
WEAK BUY
It is a good time to look at some of the oil stocks but this may not be the one to look at. They put themselves up for sale and now have said they have not received a bit that was worthy of the company. This is not he one he would play although he feels there is now some value in the company. Could buy at a $1.80 but prefers others.
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