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Stockchase Opinions

Keith RichardsHBP S&P500 VIX Short Term VIX ETFHUV.TOPAST TOP PICKJun 29, 2012

(A Top Pick May 18/12. Down 31.86%.) This is one he has been in and out of. This is really a hedge against the unknown.
$8.21

Stock price when the opinion was issued

$7.78

As of Jan 17, 2025. Market Open.

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COMMENT
A leveraged ETF on the VIX. A crisis asset to have in your portfolio. During covid sell off, you saw a spike of 200%. You must be diligent in rebalancing. Sell when it is up. Rebalance into the down movement as well the whole way down.
COMMENT
Extremely unlikely we will see hyper inflation. The underlying economy is not strong enough. From a seasonality perspective, you could get some volatility hedging but there will be no hyper inflation. Not good for long term. Good for short term tactical.
WEAK BUY
Over the long run, these will lose you money. As markets go up, these things go down considerably. It is not for the faint of heart. In a risk off market, these can run 10-15%. You must be able to time markets perfectly.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick May 03/19, Up 71%) He had expected that given the market valuation that market volatility had to go up. It had been up 150% at one point.
DON'T BUY
VIX is an esoteric asset class. What are you owning, and do you understand it? Very few people do. Priced off the options pricing of the S&P, and futures pricing. Be very careful, and manage your position size very diligently. It's a hedging/trading vehicle, so not for the long term. It's like owning a dividend stock, but you're the one who pays 5% every quarter to maintain that position. Remember, vol always ends in zero. Most should steer clear.
DON'T BUY
For day traders. Doesn't touch VIX because it's like gambling. Could have a big downside overnight.
DON'T BUY
Play on the VIX. People buy the VIX as protection when they think a correction's going to happen. It's a trading instrument. Problem is your money's stuck if the correction doesn't happen right away. Instead, reduce your equities or sell some calls.
DON'T BUY
During extremely volatile periods it can rally massively, however in the long run you are going to lose significant amounts of value. It works great when you buy it and then the markets go down. He does not recommend it except for the most extreme professional market timers.
BUY
It's a play on market volatility and he expects vol. to continue.
TOP PICK
He thinks this could soar if stock values go down. The VIX ETF for market volatility is suggesting investors think this market is going up forever. This is a contrarian trade. Do not hold this for a year, it is a trade.
COMMENT

It seems not to track the VIX. It does not track the VIX, but holds the VIX futures contracts 2 months out. Every month you lose 5 to 10% due to the leverage and rolling over futures contracts. You can’t sit with these for a long period of time. Hold for a couple of days max for an event that might be asymmetrical.

DON'T BUY

Levered ETFs are not built to be held. They are day trading vehicles. Don’t bet on the market going down with this one because you have to get the timing right.

COMMENT

He does not advocate individual investors playing the volatility index because it is a short term play. Don’t play the leveraged ones. When VIX gests above its own 50 day average and the market violates it. You can expect some follow through selling and a spike in volatility so you can add then to help with hedging.

TOP PICK

This is a hedge, insurance against the market going down. He has a 5% position. The VIX is at the bottom of a very long term trading range. The markets are too settled in and too happy. If the market starts to sell off, the VIX will spike aggressively. In a worst case scenario it has a 2 to 1 reward to risk ratio.

COMMENT

In Canada, HUV-T gives single exposure to the VIX. And there are tons of them in the US. It is a good way to play the VIX index.