Stockchase Opinions

Darren Sissons HSBC Holdings P L C HSBC-N DON'T BUY Mar 04, 2025

A great bank, but prefers other European banks. Not as well run as Canadian banks, and has less growth.

$60.150

Stock price when the opinion was issued

banks
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DON'T BUY
He stays away. People used to be bullish on the Chinese economy. They are very strongly involved in the UK. He has stayed away from European banks. It is not growing the way people expected.
PARTIAL BUY
5 year hold? There are two overhangs right now: Brexit; and Hong Kong (where it is headquartered). He believes both issues will be resolved, but there is still time required. Interest rate declines globally are creating headwinds. He thinks the dividend is relatively safe. It may be a buy here, but it really needs interest rates to rise to grow earnings.
TOP PICK
It had the BREXIT overhang as well as the Hong Kong overhang. It has had a remarkable recovery. He thinks there is upside here. You can buy it here and just leave it for a while and it will continue to grow. It has raised its dividend for the last 15 years. They could always move their head quarters to Singapore. The political overhang is somewhat of a nonsense story because the income is coming from surrounding countries. It is providing an entry point. (Analysts’ price target is $45.82)
HOLD
Political overlay of Brexit, as well as headquarters in Hong Kong. Fundamental issue of declining interest rates. Very strong balance sheet, good franchise. At some point, interest rates will turn around.
TRADE
It is a great bank if you want to be in Asia. The problem like many British and European banks is that they could not decide if they wanted to be in certain markets. They bought and built up certain businesses and did not do very well at those. They are a good retail bank and a very good commercial bank. They help companies grow in Asia and the US. Hong Kong will not be an opportunity for them now. It's not an expensive stock but they need to decide what they want to be.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jan 13/20, Down 29%) UK regulators came out and said banks cannot pay dividends. There were lawsuits in Hong Kong over this. Sold it and got out. The exposure is great but you cannot plan for regulators to do this.
DON'T BUY
She holds only Canadian or US banks, no need to go outside NA. Every so often, HSBC encounters problems. Sustainability in earnings growth is not there.
COMMENT

It is going through a very big re-structuring but he's not sure what they want to do, They have a big franchise in Asia and the UK. They sold the Canadian side of the business to Royal Bank which did well with it.

DON'T BUY

Their focus is less Europe, more Asia and Middle East. To do this, they are laying off a lot of staff. Return on invested capital is only 6%, but the cost of that capital is 7%. Negative, despite a 5% dividend that won't rise.