Goldman SachsGSDON'T BUYMay 02, 2014Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Oct 29, 2026. Market Open.
This has sunk a lot since last July, sinking from $1,154 to under $894 before yesterday when it reported. They reported a monster top and bottom line beat, 23% revenue growth, and 39% earnings growth. Global markets and banking revenues were up 32%, investment banking fees 21%, and equity revenues up 72%. Though fixed income, commodities and currencies was flat (for every bank too). Asset and wealth management was stable, up 10% from the previous quarter. Expenses were better than expected. GS benefitted from the data centre build out though M&A is slow. And yet, shares were down yesterday and today (by 1.5%). Market skeptics feel the boom time is over, though he disagrees.
Different businesses. LLY is a big play in GLP-1 drugs. How will pills effect the injections business? LLY has done a good job of navigating these new pills. GS enjoys increased stock market and IPO businesses. He prefers LLY, which is tied to a secular growth trend, but GS' good times in capturing revenue in this cycle will end.
Mergers are increasing, and banks like GS makes advisory fees from them. Also, the banks have been rallying since oil slumped, and will benefit further from rising interest rates, which appears will happen later this year. Plus, hyperscalers may need to keep borrowing money to keep competing with each other.
Has trouble valuing big banks with investment banks in them. What they earn on trading is way less than what they used to be. The most profitable part used to be the proprietary trading desk, but regulations made them get rid of this. He doesn’t find them as attractive as they used to be.