Stockchase Opinions

Karen Firestone, CEO, Aureus Asset Management First Republic Bank FRC-N SELL Mar 20, 2023

Down 25% this morning and shares halted. She owns a very small position, picking up some last week, but selling this week. The fear factor is the reason.

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Stock price when the opinion was issued

Financial Services
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(Top Pick Jun 3/14, Up 24.02%) A fabulous bank. A bank you can own for a long, long time. There is speculation they might get taken out. Last year they announced they would pass 50 Billion in assets, but that meant absorbing a lot of costs to manage themselves. This was a buying opportunity. They need to beef up their reporting requirements. Silicon valley, California.

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San Francisco based with a huge exposure to silicon valley. A mid-cap bank. They have grown loans and deposits by 20% each over the last 20 years. They just closed an acquisition that is attractive. They grow two to three times as fast as the typical US bank.

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A founder run organization. The 14th largest bank in the US and the fastest growing one. Private bank that services the affluent. Lends and has wealth management businesses. Better at tracking customers than peers. More like a consumer good companies based on the net promoter score. (Analysts’ price target is $207.67)
SELL
Hold or sell?

Share price has reacted to SVB news. If you want more safety, go to the bigger cap banks either in the US (JPM, BAC) or Canada, where our oligopoly structure is attractive.

PARTIAL SELL

Down 25% this morning and shares halted. The situation is changing constantly. He's watching it. Depositers are safe. Who will the bank merge with, etc? He has sold part of his position to a small holding. He will eventually decide whether to keep it or dump it.

SELL

She bought it as it spiked 50% (good), then the next day it fell (bad). It was a very small position. She expected the bank's deposits position to be contained, but it didn't.

DON'T BUY

Who cares? Their woes effect only FRC. We're past the point of the impact of other regional banks. The market has moved on.

DON'T BUY
Shares are tanking again after reports that the government won't rescue it

Either the FIDC steps in or FRC becomes a zombie bank. Even if it survives as a zombie, FRC will pay so much interest that there won't be profits.

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First Republic Bank engages in the provision of private banking, business banking, real estate lending, and wealth management, including trust and custody services. It operates through the Commercial Banking and Wealth Management segments. The Commercial Banking segment represents most of the operations, including real estate secured lending, retail deposit gathering, private banking activities, mortgage sales and servicing, and managing capital, liquidity, and interest rate risk. The Wealth Management segment consists of the investment management activities of FRIM, First Republic Trust Company, FRTC Delaware, mutual fund activities through third-party providers, the brokerage activities of FRSC, and foreign exchange activities conducted on behalf of clients. The company was founded by James H. Herbert II in February 1985 and is headquartered in San Francisco, CA. Social media mentions are up 1200% in the past 24h.