Stockchase Opinions

Fabrice Taylor Fitbit Inc FIT-N TOP PICK Apr 27, 2016

A very, very interesting product. Fitness and wearables is a big thing. Trading at about 12X forward earnings. Not a low risk proposition, but they are making money and have $3 a share in cash. An interesting speculation.

$17.880

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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COMMENT

Not a stock for the weak of heart. Its metrics are not very good in terms of actually measuring what you are doing. Applewatch is taking market share away. Stocks like this live and die on their momentum. A stock he would never buy as a long-term investor because it doesn’t have the characteristics that attract him.

COMMENT

Use these types of things as a trading opportunity, not an investment, because there is so much of an opportunity for disruption and faddiness in these things. You can play these as trades, but don’t go away for 6 months and leave the stock there. Keep Stops fairly tight and monitor them. There are a lot of competitors in this field.

DON'T BUY

(Market Call Minute.) This falls into the fad investing category. He is not entirely convinced that it is that effective.

WAIT

This is a dominant in the fitness tracking business, and they have good market share along with good products. The question is, what does a market really want. Meanwhile they are trying to roll out new products to compete with Apple’s watch. Spending a lot of money on product development. By the 2nd half of this year, it will probably be clearer as to whether they are successful and what the market wants.

COMMENT

Your classic, skyrocketing tech stock. It opened up significantly higher than its offering price. It has now reversed course and is down in the dungeons. Whenever you have a company that has a product, as opposed to a service, you get a one-time revenue but you don’t have recurring revenues. The stock is so cheap, that may be one of the larger tech players will pick it up and try to grow it. It might be an interesting speculative play for those that have a strong risk appetite.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick April 27/16. Down 70%.) Bought a FitBit watch and liked it thinking it was a good little product. He sold his holdings soon after.