Falconbridge Ltd (FAL.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

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Falconbridge Ltd (FAL.TO)

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COMMENT

Will be difficult for anybody else to come in salt she feels it is now a done deal.

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TOP PICK

Nickel was the tightest coming into this metals bull market 5 years ago and they managed to fully restock the metal 2 years ago. It is now becoming tight again.

DON'T BUY

Nickel prices have been good and this is a takeover candidate. Inco (N-T) has a bid on the table and Xstrata from Switzerland is rumored to be a buyer. The stock is up on takeover speculation. Probably overvalued on a fundamental basis.

PAST TOP PICK

Falconbridge is up in price. Strata and Inco are two companies trying to out bid each other to merge with Falconbridge. Inco has extended its bid until June.

BUY

Amalgamation with Inco (N-T) (See the Top Pick) will be a good thing with very positive synergies.

HOLD

Likes nickel and thinks that the merger with Inco (N-T) will go through. doubts there will be another offer at this point.

TOP PICK

Commodity prices are generating lots of cash. The additional part for this, is that it is a sure term play. The deal with Inco (N-T) will be somewhat accretive as you will get synergies on the cost side. On the other side, if somebody is going tostep in to make a higher offer, its going to be within the next month.

BUY

A good story. The merger with Inco (N-T) will help both stocks.

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TOP PICK

This is a double play. They are going to be merged with Inco (N-T) which will create big synergies. This will be the number one nickel producer in the world.

HOLD

Generally speaking, during mergers, you wait and tender to the new company. You could also have a new company come in.

TOP PICK

Not necessarily the best industry to be in, in the longer-term. This is its window that even in the next five years, it will do extremely well.

COMMENT

Q: Will Teck Cominco (TEK.SV.B-T) buy Inco (N-T) after the merger? A: Teck Cominco has enough cash flow that it has to be looking at acquisitions but this would be a pretty big bite for it.

HOLD

Merging with Inco (N-T) and once this is done there is talk of somebody coming in to buy it out. Lokes the metal stocks in general.

HOLD

When you are looking for synergies, there is notthing better than the merger with Inco (N-T). It's probably a little too late for buying it now.

TOP PICK

Stock is trading pretty close to the value of the bid from Inco (N-T). The merger creates the world's largest nickel producer, a very good copper producer and there is great growth in these assets. Will get good synergies out of this.

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Falconbridge Ltd (FAL.TO)