Stockchase Opinions

Bill Baruch, Founder, Blue Line Capital iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index EEM-N BUY Oct 14, 2024

He just bought this to get exposure to China, which he didn't have at all directly. Top holdings include Alibaba and Tencent as well as Taiwan Semi. He likes the momentum in this geography.

$46.360

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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COMMENT

An e-commerce pure play in India or this ETF? In India, there isn’t really a publicly listed company. There is a company called Flipkart that is essentially the Amazon of India. It is private and has a lot of notable investors globally. That segment of the commerce is growing very quickly, but it is still not profitable. There is a lot of subsidizing of their delivery costs and it is very competitive on pricing. It’s a little early days, and she would rather go to this indirectly. (See Top Picks.)

TOP PICK

(This is in US$, but is also available in Cnd$ through ZEM-T, FDE-T and SHZ-T, which also offers a nice dividend yield.) Technically, the chart shows a nice upward trend, and today, after 2 PM we had a break out to a new high. The growth is coming from India, China, South Korea, Brazil, Taiwan. Seasonally, this runs from the middle of January right through to approximately the end of April.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick March 15/17. Up 2%.) He was looking for a place to hide and didn’t want to recommend either a US or Canadian stock. The period of seasonal strength for this ETF is from around the end of January through to the end of April. Now is the time to take profits.

TOP PICK
Emerging markets have been outperforming our markets during the recent meltdown (late-2018) through stimulus. Seasonality of Dec.19-April 9 in EM.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 08/19, Down 0.4%) Trade wars with China was a reason to pick EM, as he didn't want to bet only on China. China's been a big factor in the drawdown. December - April is the optimal time. Feels that it will move higher once there's a trade deal, but he won't participate as it's against his seasonal mandate.
BUY
Emerging markets fit in with the super cycle and the weaker US dollar and cyclicality. EEM was breaking out two weeks ago and is worth buying now.
BUY

Look overseas to buy a tech dip? Taiwan Semi makes up 6% in this ETF. We're in this supercycle where commodities and banks are climbing. EM and Asian tech names are are some of the most valuable--but undervalued--in the world. They enjoy a much-larger market, too. American investors shouldn't get away from this trade. EM enjoys a weaker US dollar and global re-acceleration.

DON'T BUY
A lot of investors are heavily weighted in Canada and the US, without looking beyond those borders. Europe offers a lot of value now, and the EMs offer quite a bit of growth. EEM will get you into China and Hong Kong, etc, with some tech names. Concern about EMs is whether vaccines are flowing as quickly as in developed markets. Looking at Europe, try FEZ, a very simple ETF that holds 50 of the largest names, all blue chip, lots of value compared to the US, yield is about 3-4%.
COMMENT
There is more value in emerging markets. However, you have currency risks too. Emerging markets are compelling for growth. It is a more difficult asset class, like the Russia exposure that is now valued at $0. It might pay to have an active manager that selects individual stocks.