You have to feel sorry for the pulp and paper guys. Every $1 spent on the Internet is a $1 not spent on paper. Doesn't season this turning around quickly.
Doesn't own any of the eastern Canadian forest stocks, but starting to warm up to them. They seemed to be bottoming out. There has been overcapacity in the east, but the big producers have been taking this out. Cnd$, low commodity prices have been working against them. If you are a speculator, the worst is probably over. These companies have decimated their balance sheets so they are high risk.
Forestry products are one of the industry dogs that may finally have its day. He believes in a strong economy for 2006. Based on projected cash flows, some of these companies are very cheap. Looking at some of these but haven't bought yet. Would like to see a quarter or two of these earnings actually materialise.
It has been a rough ride for all of the eastern Canadian forest product companies. There are a lot of pressures on them from government restrictions to fuel costs and stronger Canadian$. Has a lot of debt. They are starting to get some relief on pricing of newsprint.
Looking at it as a possible buy, but has backed away because of balance sheet issues. Stock is starting to go up because the industry has taken out all kinds of capacity. Demand has not been picking up, but because of too much capacity, mills have been shut down. Prefers playing the lumber stocks in western Canada.
It was a short but it fell too far. The price is liable to roll back higher if we come out of COVID. It is stressed on current earnings. You could envision an environment where it comes back on-line. It has a high debt load so there are others he would prefer.
This was recently on a 52 week low list he follows. He thinks, given the market has it trading, the market believes the balance sheet is impaired. He thinks the dividend will have to be cut. He would consider a speculative buy if it dropped to $10. You should try to sell on a rally.
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