Opinions
David Taylor, MBA, CFA
Domtar Inc.
DTC-T
DON'T BUY
Dec 20, 2005
Doesn't like this one. Really concerned about the pulp side. There is a lot of restructuring to come with this company.
$6.470
Stock price when the opinion was issued
pulp trust
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WEAK BUY
Doesn't own any of the eastern Canadian forest stocks, but starting to warm up to them. They seemed to be bottoming out. There has been overcapacity in the east, but the big producers have been taking this out. Cnd$, low commodity prices have been working against them. If you are a speculator, the worst is probably over. These companies have decimated their balance sheets so they are high risk.
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Forestry products are one of the industry dogs that may finally have its day. He believes in a strong economy for 2006. Based on projected cash flows, some of these companies are very cheap. Looking at some of these but haven't bought yet. Would like to see a quarter or two of these earnings actually materialise.
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Looking at it as a possible buy, but has backed away because of balance sheet issues. Stock is starting to go up because the industry has taken out all kinds of capacity. Demand has not been picking up, but because of too much capacity, mills have been shut down. Prefers playing the lumber stocks in western Canada.
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SELL ON STRENGTH