Stockchase Opinions

Steve Martin Denison Mines Corp DML-T COMMENT Apr 18, 2008

Price has come down because spot price for uranium dropped to about $70. Also, a lot of uranium companies were getting valued at a premium to their NAV. Probably near a bottom, so it should turn around soon.
$7.530

Stock price when the opinion was issued

non-base metal mining
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BUY ON WEAKNESS
This stock has exploded recently, way above bullish targets. The price is too high, driven by a lot of quick money flooding in. Let it cool off before buying. But there's always been a lot of volatility in uranium.
BUY
The outlook for players in this area is quite positive. Now that we are living with shortages in power, people are realizing that to reduce carbon, nuclear starts to come back into the conversation. The problem is that a build-out will not happen quickly.
BUY
The whole uranium space will do well in a 2-5 year timeframe. DML's focus on the Athabasca Basin is smart. Headwinds include an extraordinary spend, so they'll need to raise capital sooner. If you can stand the volatility for the next couple of years, a solid pick.
BUY

Small-cap Canadian name in uranium. Risk is that they're trying technology in a way that hasn't been tried before. If it works, they'll do extremely well; if not, they'll have challenges. Bull market for uranium. Expects it to do well for a year. He's long this name.

TOP PICK

Unique because using in situ recovery methods for uranium using chemicals and water. Technology is well proven globally, and really brings down the capital and operating costs. Very strong economics. Newest project is almost fully financed. Prime takeout candidate. No dividend.

(Analysts’ price target is $3.46)
WEAK BUY

He bought this three years ago when investors hated uranium, but he has since made his money back. DML is trying proven recovery methods but at a deeper depth that could work. If it does, shares go higher, but fears this method could be challenging on a commercial scale. Swo, he feels of two minds about DML.  DML is the most important junior in the Athabasca basin. Their edge is operating a permitted mill there. 

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Nov 15/23, Up 13%)

He sold it when uranium broke $100/lb and shares surged. Uranium prices are now taking a breather and he hopes to get back into this in Q2. Are well-financed. They own $275 million of uranium they bought on the open market.

DON'T BUY

An area he's not involved with, mainly because it involves too much predicting. Earnings for the sector can be a challenge, ROIC isn't strong. A lot of expectation built into recent action.

DON'T BUY

The question asked for his preference between Cameco and Denison. Uranium is up and momentum is with them but he wouldn't buy them. New nuclear projects are ten years away for development. Denison has a new mine in Saskatchewan but it is a 10 year project. Cameco trades at 30 times revenue.

BUY

Focused on uranium, where seasonality is strong from September-January. Lots of volatility. Performed well, then pulled back, did well. Doing better than others in the space. Favourable in medium- and long-term.

Lots of positive announcements in the sector, but the stocks have not responded because all the focus is still on tech, not on commodities.