Opinions
Mark Grammer
Diageo PLC
DEO-N
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Mar 22, 2018
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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On Nov. 10, they issued an operating profit warning, because they're getting killed in Latin America and the Caribbean, because consumers are trading down to cheaper brands. Younger people are drinking less hard alcohol than previous generations, verified by a recent poll. One factor is the legalization of cannabis. Another is that companies have been hiking liquor prices too often. Also, the new weight-loss drugs reduce craving for booze.
He's added at lower levels, a great opportunity. Best in the world at what they do. Sales have been soft, but they have so many of the top brands in the world. When someone like George Clooney comes out with a brand, they buy it and bring it into the distribution network. Will raise dividend and generate earnings growth for many years. Yields around 3%.
Very well managed. Had volume, pricing and inventory issues. Overwhelming healthy messages from government to limit intake. Younger generation doesn't drink as much as older ones. Not expensive, a lot of the negatives are priced in. Yield is just over 4%.
Take a look. Nice, conservative name to own. Potentially undervalued, and could turn around.
If you look at the June numbers, sales were down and volumes were down in a lot of places around the world. So spirits are doing very poorly, and it's a higher-priced product. Margin compression. Expectations of 5-7% growth for the second half is over-optimistic.
Needs to restructure into fewer brands. Big issue is that it's not growing as fast as it used to, nor does it have pricing power anymore. Management shakeup has hurt. Stock's fallen a lot, so you could try a value play if you're prepared to hold for a long time.
Largest producer in the world, focused on premium brands. Stock's at 10-year low. Post-Covid revenues have flattened out, but earnings poised to rise. Wall Street's not enamoured with management, but the company can afford to hire the best -- there are rumblings, though no action yet. Cheap valuation of 16x PE. Looking for a return to 7-10% earnings growth. Hoping the stock will be a double over 5 years. Yield is 2.87%.
Things have slowed down in Latin America. Some brands have underperformed. Lots of articles on how alcohol might not be great for you. People may be drinking less, but they're drinking "better". Consumers tend to return to behaviours over time. (The big trans fat scare of 25 years ago has not stopped people from eating french fries.)
He thinks the spirits industry is in a good position now. Scotch whiskeys are in short supply, other whiskeys are selling well. Diageo is the world leader in this. He will buy this when it hits the right price. He discussed cannabis with them a few months ago. They have made initial investments in cannabis stocks but are still taking a wait-and-see attitude. He expects them to acquire a cannabis company later, after the dust settles.