Kevin SimpsonDoordashDASHRISKYDec 27, 2024

Is -34% in Q1 and one of the worst performers on the S&P. The street expects AI to displace them. He disagrees. DASH has a solid brand and user base. DASH is trading cheaply now.

On her radar since it pulled back. Lots of competition in food delivery. No longer just food delivery, trying to become a local commerce platform. Investors want proof that it can scale without burning cash. Margins are still fragile. Now an execution story, no longer a disruption story.

Prefers UBER.

Is on his radar. He owns Uber, which also delivers food. Shares have been choppy. They tried to buy Deliveroo, so they can expand to UK, Europe and Middle East. DASH is expensive, lacking earnings and has some EBITDA.

He sold it after seeing the horrific earnings, missing top and bottom lines. Sold all shares. Depressing. He had believed in it.

Fits the evolving themes of convenience and last-mile logistics. Controls about 65% of the US food-delivery market. Evolving into a broader commerce platform -- groceries, convenience, retail. Loyalty drives higher order frequency. Margins and profitability improving. Using AI to improve order flow. 

Expected earnings growth going forward is very strong at 30-35%. There is competition, but being the leader counts for a lot. And because the market's expanding, there's room for everybody to grow. No dividend.

Fits the secular, on-demand theme going on around the world -- "If I want something, I want it as soon as possible." Last-mile delivery has been difficult for companies, but DASH is very good at this. Commands 65% of the US food delivery market, astounding. Expanding quickly into grocery, alcohol, and retail, as well as international markets. Leader in digital convenience. 

Strong brand recognition. Expects 2026 revenue to top $16B. Subscriptions provide high-margin opportunities, including advertising. Sees 25+% EPS growth going forward and double-digit revenue expansion. No dividend.

Q1 revenue jumped 21% to a record $3 billion. Total orders are up 18%.

Last week, they reported a beat on every line item, including 23% revenue growth YOY and total orders 91% YOY, with improved guidance. From the pandemic, people are used to using food delivery apps, given order frequency and customer retention, while digital penetration is growing including their monthly subscription.

They just delivered good numbers. Likes it.

It just reported a clean revenue beat and raised guidance for this quarter and the full year. 

They report Thursday. He expects them to report a profit.