Greg Guichon Chartwell Retirement Residences CSH.UN-T BUY Jul 14, 2006

Tremendous job filling units since pandemic, occupancy back to near 90%. Leading edge of baby boomer population starting to access this type of product. Discount to NAV. Making great accretive acquisitions, so he expects NAV growth. Great product, high-margin business. Yield is 3.9%.

Excellent company performance. Post Covid-19 recovery has been very strong. Business continues to remain strong. Will continue to own. Expecting earnings to continue growing. M&A has also been very strong. 

Has done extremely well. This has been an extremely good performance year for long-term-care REITs. Not sure there's much more in terms of capital gains from where we are now. Unless substantial pullback, wouldn't buy now.

Of all the long-term care facilities, this would be the one she'd look at the closest. Secular trend of aging demographics isn't going away. Targeting 95% occupancy, which is achievable. Liability risk if another Covid-type outbreak. Healthcare worker shortage. Yield is less than 4%.

See her Top Picks for a name that plays to the same demographic.

We note that it has been one of the best performing REITs over the past two years amidst broad sector weakness. The Trust has managed to navigate the high-rate environment and execute its acquisitive growth strategy with 2024 being a record year. Unit prices have appreciated significant to where it is quite expensive from a valuation standpoint, but there are plenty of positive fundamental trends, with increasing occupancy rates, fund flows, and margins. We like its recent momentum, and its distribution is well-covered by cash flows. It is not exactly cheap, trading at 3.7X book, but its FFO interest coverage ratio and FFO/debt have all been increasing, showing a positive trend in profitability. We would be comfortable buying here for an income name.
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Sees more upside from here. Occupancy levels have crept back up to over 90%. Fantastic demand profile, over 4% CAGR. New construction is near-low. 

There's talk that the stock could break out of its current range, possibly. But he wonders about the direction of interest rates both here and abroad. Either hold if you already own, or buy on dips. Good job if you already own.

91% occupancy, aiming for 95% by year's end, which is very high-margin growth. Great position to add to portfolio in an accretive way. Still lots of upside. He expects Q1 report will show positive balance sheet developments.

Great story. Limited supply. Canada is vastly under-invested in seniors' retirement housing. See his Top Picks.

They're the best Canadian operator in this space, but there are many sophisticated private ones as well. The competition is fierce. Also, it will get harder to staff these places. Thirdly, there's the uncertainty over interest rates. He looked at during the pandemic and knew it would do well after the pandemic, but passed for these reasons. CSH has done well since then and will continue to do well, but isn't sure what will drive it much higher. It's a steady eddy, a good company, but unfortunately one he passed on.