CiscoCSCOCOMMENTOct 04, 2017Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Sep 04, 2026. Market Open.
Like Apple it was sort of a sleeper last year. It sells processes and analogue chips, very different than GPU's. Is involved in networking products and services. The AI stack explosion needed their products and technology. It is fully priced according to analysts' price targets.
Kudos on that choice, because it's not been a market darling (since the dot-com bubble). Riding coattails of stronger players in the space, catching the halo effect. The old adage: "No one ever went broke taking a profit" -- good risk management.
Prefers, and owns, ANET.
Part of IT infrastructure, but $27B acquisition of Splunk really helped drive security business. Finally hit a new high (previous high was March 27, 2000). Phenomenal allocator of capital. Compelling buy. Every year, buys back stock and raises dividend.
Finally growing revenues again, he's looking for mid-high single-digit revenue growth. AI will bring a much higher recurring revenue stream. Its solutions are so embedded in businesses, he's not worried about clients trying to go it alone with AI.
Trying to make the move from hardware to software. It has decent free cash flow, but is not growing fast enough, so would never make his list of “wanting to own”. They are going to struggle because there are bigger operators in that space. Instead of expecting huge growth and a huge multiple, his guess is that is it going to be more like a commoditized growth rate in the 5%-10% range, if that. If anybody overtakes them, they’re going to have to struggle to keep pace.