John PetridesConocoPhillipsCOPTOP PICKOct 24, 2017
2016 was the year management would like to forget. They were caught with their pants down when oil prices collapsed in Jan/Feb 2016, to the point where they had to cut their dividend. They went back to the drawing board. Had an analyst’s day at the end of 2016, where they said they were going to sell $5-$8 billion of assets in 2017. They sold over $13 billion of assets already, and have used that to repair the balance sheet. They’re buying back stock. Thinks they are positioning the company in a position of strength in an environment in the energy sector, which is going to continue to be volatile. Dividend yield of 2.1%. (Analysts’ price target is $53.)
He remains overweight energy in this name and others. Oil is a great hedge to geopolitical risk, like a flare-up in Iran or the Russian war. Also, we're entering summer driving season. Also, oil will benefit from a rotation into the value trade. Oil companies are fundamentally sound.
Energy remains a favoured sector as oil and gas prices remain up from supply constraints. A large, diversified operator with lower production costs. Trades at 10x, a little expensive, but still high quality.
A good proxy for the energy sector. Can't comment on short-term trading, because it all depends on where crude oil and nat gas prices go. It's a well-run company and pays an okay dividend, though not high.
(A Top Pick Jun 24/21, Up 55%) He's adding to this. Energy remains attractive as oil prices remain firm. The current pullback in oil prices opens an opportunities. Pays a 2% dividend. 10% free cash flow. Will buyback shares and pays dividends.
(A Top Pick Mar 03/22, Down 5%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with COP has triggered its stop at $93. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time. This will result in a net investment gain of 50%, when combined with our previous buy recommendation.
(A Top Pick Mar 03/22, Up 64.8%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with COP is progressing well. We now recommend trailing up the stop (from $80) to $95 at this time.
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O’Reilly The recent tragic events in Ukraine underscore the urgency of security of energy supply and that is why COP is reiterated as a TOP PICK. With holdings in the most prolific basins in the US -- Eagle Ford shale, Bakken shale, and Delaware Basin and term debt that is only 23% of the capital structure makes this a good strategic fit. We also like that they have building cash reserves while paying down debt and buying back shares and it pays a dividend backed by a payout ratio of 33% of cash flow. We recommend trailing up the stop (from $50) to $80, looking to achieve $115 -- over 16% upside. Yield 1.45% (Analysts’ price target is $103.56)
2016 was the year management would like to forget. They were caught with their pants down when oil prices collapsed in Jan/Feb 2016, to the point where they had to cut their dividend. They went back to the drawing board. Had an analyst’s day at the end of 2016, where they said they were going to sell $5-$8 billion of assets in 2017. They sold over $13 billion of assets already, and have used that to repair the balance sheet. They’re buying back stock. Thinks they are positioning the company in a position of strength in an environment in the energy sector, which is going to continue to be volatile. Dividend yield of 2.1%. (Analysts’ price target is $53.)