Stockchase Opinions

John PetridesConocoPhillipsCOPTOP PICKOct 24, 2017

2016 was the year management would like to forget. They were caught with their pants down when oil prices collapsed in Jan/Feb 2016, to the point where they had to cut their dividend. They went back to the drawing board. Had an analyst’s day at the end of 2016, where they said they were going to sell $5-$8 billion of assets in 2017. They sold over $13 billion of assets already, and have used that to repair the balance sheet. They’re buying back stock. Thinks they are positioning the company in a position of strength in an environment in the energy sector, which is going to continue to be volatile. Dividend yield of 2.1%. (Analysts’ price target is $53.)

$50.99

Stock price when the opinion was issued

$120.26

As of Jul 24, 2026. Market Open.

integrated oils
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DON'T BUY

The oil price will remain high as the Strait of Hormuz will be blocked. Western oil producers will take market share from Iraq, Bahrain and Qatar. COP is reasonably value and assets are stable, but he wouldn't buy it. Cut COP doesn't stand out among US oil names.

DON'T BUY

For oil energy, pessimism on supply was really priced in on March 26. Since then, oil names have retraced. Oil is a significant portion of the economy, and that's why it causes inflation.

With oil prices coming down on the back of peace breaking out, the narrative and fund flows are going to be somewhat negative. Capital will move to other areas. The price will be higher than it was pre-conflict, but we'll have to see what this "new normal" price will be. And he wouldn't buy any energy names till that shakes out.

BUY

A lot of oil companies have fallen since the highs of March/April. Likes this name.

DON'T BUY

Has never owned. The only oil stock he owns right now is CNQ.

BUY

Has owned this for a year, still trades reasonably, high free cash flow and low debt. One of the largest, lowest-cost producers.

DON'T BUY

Likes energy space. 
Better options for investors.
Would prefer integrated energy names (refining capability).

BUY

Strong free cash flow, credit profile and disciplined spending. Chinese demand will rise. Among the best names in energy.

BUY

They did a golden cross (50-day moving average above the 200). One of the best names in this space.

BUY

He remains overweight energy in this name and others. Oil is a great hedge to geopolitical risk, like a flare-up in Iran or the Russian war. Also, we're entering summer driving season. Also, oil will benefit from a rotation into the value trade. Oil companies are fundamentally sound.

BUY

Energy remains a favoured sector as oil and gas prices remain up from supply constraints. A large, diversified operator with lower production costs. Trades at 10x, a little expensive, but still high quality.

HOLD
You must own at least one oil stock. He's taken some profits, but won't sell anymore.
WEAK BUY
A good proxy for the energy sector. Can't comment on short-term trading, because it all depends on where crude oil and nat gas prices go. It's a well-run company and pays an okay dividend, though not high.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jun 24/21, Up 55%) He's adding to this. Energy remains attractive as oil prices remain firm. The current pullback in oil prices opens an opportunities. Pays a 2% dividend. 10% free cash flow. Will buyback shares and pays dividends.
BUY
They report Wednesday. Likes it--fabulous with a good balance of natural gas and crude oil.
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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 03/22, Down 5%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with COP has triggered its stop at $93. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time. This will result in a net investment gain of 50%, when combined with our previous buy recommendation.