ConocoPhillipsCOPCOMMENTNov 29, 2013Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jul 24, 2026. Market Open.
For oil energy, pessimism on supply was really priced in on March 26. Since then, oil names have retraced. Oil is a significant portion of the economy, and that's why it causes inflation.
With oil prices coming down on the back of peace breaking out, the narrative and fund flows are going to be somewhat negative. Capital will move to other areas. The price will be higher than it was pre-conflict, but we'll have to see what this "new normal" price will be. And he wouldn't buy any energy names till that shakes out.
When you are calculating upside to a model price, in addition to valuation does your assessment process also give you an idea about what exactly is strong with regards to quality of management? Quality of management comes through the numbers. When you see good management, the math is perfect. On this one, management does not know what they are doing compared to Exxon Mobil. But realize that these are over long periods of time. Also, remember that this one went through a reorganization when they kicked out the refiner. His model prices $82, which is a 13%-13.5% upside, which is good, but he is finding a whole lot of value elsewhere. (See Top Picks.)