Brookfield Office Properties (BPO.TO) Buy,…

Brookfield Office Properties (BPO.TO)

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HOLD

Real estate sector is still suffering a bit of challenge, especially in mortgage refinancing. He is cautious on real estate and this would have to be a longer-term play. Good quality assets and good company management but it has had a decent move in the last little while. 7.25% dividend.

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TRADE

8.3% dividend. Stock had a good run recently. Likes company but they have a big exposure to US real estate market, however it is trading at a big discount to its US piers. Fairly save dividend until at least 2010 unless economy deteriorates after 2010.

HOLD

Class A offices in Toronto, Ottawa, Calgary, downtown Manhattan, Virginia and Washington DC. Great management and great assets. When Shorting on banks was stopped in the US, so the Shorts switched to the landlords. Office occupancy in Calgary and Manhattan, and to some extent Toronto, will decline so rents will come off creating cash flow deterioration. Payout ratio of only 65% so distribution is safe. Buy at $5.50 or less and if you own, Hold.

COMMENT

Very good quality real estate but lease rollovers are coming over the next few years so the market has some concerns. 10% yield is relatively safe but less safe than the banks’.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Feb 5/08.) Lost substantially on this one.

BUY

Stock seems to have stabilized. Clever company run by clever people with an exceptional 9% yield. Long-term rental contracts.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Dec 28/07. Down 59.3%.) Trades at a discount to its NAV. Sold out at around $10 because of vulnerability and perception that the New York property market is going to deteriorate.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Dec 28/07. Down 53%.) Sold out at around $10-$11. Replaced their real estate with unsecured bonds.

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BUY

The distribution appears to be very safe. A great portfolio and a great management team. The overhang here is huge exposure to financial services. Buying at these levels in 3 to 5 years you will be "handsomely rewarded!"

COMMENT

Biggest landlord in Manhattan. Under the gun right now because of all the layoffs going on in New York City. Have been able to roll over their debt. Customer clientele base has been pretty strong. Expect the parent Brookfield Asset Management (BAM.A-T) will continue to make acquisitions. Would prefer the parent.

DON'T BUY

It all comes down to cost of capital and whether they can generate a return on the assets. He would avoid the real estate group.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Nov 1/07. Down 51%.) Best properties, bar none, globally. Don't have a lot of debt coming due.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Dec 7/07. Down 44.5%.) Exposed to Calgary and Manhattan offices. Have been a number of negative reports regarding midtown and downtown Manhattan offices. Some deterioration in fundamentals. Q3 was good. Very cheap at these levels but there is more negative news to come out of commercial real estate.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Aug 13/07. Down 55%.) Best property company in Canada and North America. Job losses in the financial services industry, which means tenants coming out of the system. Valuation is good.

TOP PICK

It owns some of the best commercial properties in the world. Make a lot of money in residential – it’s a land bank. Have been buying back their shares and will continue. Not levered as much as many real estate firms. Bought a lot of their buildings cheaper than current rates.

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Brookfield Office Properties (BPO.TO)