Opinions
Stockchase Insights
Big Lots Inc
BIG-N
DON'T BUY
Jun 02, 2023
N/A
Stock price when the opinion was issued
department stores
It's the ideal tool to help you make quicker, more informed decisions for
managing and tracking your investments.
You might be interested:
TOP PICK
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly This big lot retailer recently released earnings and showed EPS growth of over 60%. Although a higher cost structure player in the sector the company is on target to reduce costs by $100 million over the next three years. It trades at under 3x PE (compared to peers at 35x) and has a decent dividend. We would buy this with a stop-loss at $32, looking to achieve $58 -- about 25% upside. Yield 2.66% (Analysts’ price target is $57.78)
department stores
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Dec 08/20, Up 27.3%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with BIG has achieved its objective of $58. To be disciplined, we recommend removing 50% of the position and trailing up the stop to $45 (right around the original recommended buy level). This would all but guarantee a minimum return exceeding 13%.
department stores
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Dec 08/20, Up 40.6%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with BIG is progressing well. We are now recommending to trail up the stop (from $45) to $60. If triggered, this would all but insure a total investment return over 29%, including the previous recommendation to cover 50% of the position,
department stores
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Dec 08/20, Up 14.5%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with BIG is progressing well. We recommend setting a trailing stop at $45. If triggered, this would result in a net investment gain of 13%, when combined with our previous recommendation to cover half the position.
department stores
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Dec 08/20, Down 1.2%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with BIG has triggered its stop at $45. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time. When combined with the previous recommendation to cover half, this results in a combined net investment return of 13%.
department stores
Advertising
BIG's small size ($141M) and debt ($2.3B) and losses ($180M last year) do make it very financially risky. Bloomberg calculates a 'default risk ratio' and it is 27.3%, about as high as we see on a company that has yet to restructure. The dividend was cancelled last week. Cash flow was negative $100M+ in the last year. Its last quarter was horrible. We think it is very precarious and the decline makes sense based on the risk. There is a 39% short interest, and it could see a short squeeze one day, but this is not something to count on. We would not want to own a very small company with more than $2B in obligations (mostly leases) and negative cash flow.
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free