Stockchase Opinions

Stockchase Insights Brookfield Renewable Partners BEP.UN-T HOLD Aug 05, 2024

Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

BEP.UN reported funds from operations of 51c, growing by 9% from the year prior, but just missing estimates of 52c. Revenue came in at $1.48B, increasing 22.9% year-over-year, but falling just shy of estimates of $1.49B.  The company deployed or committed $8.6B of capital ($970 million net to Brookfield Renewable) across multiple investments globally. BEP.UN secured contracts to deliver an incremental 2,700-gigawatt hours per year of generation, of which ~90% of development was with corporate customers. Distribution was unchanged. Not a bad quarter from BEP.UN as FFO and revenue saw decent growth, despite coming up just short of estimates. We like to see the increased demand from corporate customers and think this can be a growth catalyst in the future. 
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BUY ON WEAKNESS

Not easy in the space to find a company that will benefit long term from green trends. This is probably the best way to play. Owns tremendous assets. He owns the parent BN.

BUY

Hard to find a company with the same inventory of renewable energy projects. Global, one of the picks to get exposure outside Canada. Dividend looks safe. Fairly stable, solid fundamentals. Will get beaten up in tax-loss season.

BUY

Brookfield is a very good manger and BEP contracts are with Microsoft. BEP is not only wind and solar power, but also hydro. They grow their dividend 5% per year. He is averaging down.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick May 24/24, Down 16%)

Has been hurt by continued negativity towards renewables, not helped by Trump's election. They continue to sign major supply renewal deals with tech companies. There still needs to be a lot of renewable power to be built, and BEP is one of the best at it. Collect the 6.75% dividend as you wait, and average in.

BUY

Lots of hydro power, a long-life asset. Partnership with CCO for Westinghouse nuclear (and she's pretty bullish on nuclear power generation).

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jun 13/24, Up 6%)

Total return is positive because of the distribution yield. Rough year for the sector. New US administration doesn't support the sector; removal of tax credits is a headwind. Long-term secular growth theme, with near-term hiccups and volatility. MSFT agreement gives visibility to revenues, other companies want similar agreements.

TOP PICK

Need for energy and power continues to increase. About half its assets are hydro, which she likes for long-term growth. Geographic and asset diversification. Huge deal with MSFT, which should increase production by ~33%. Joint venture with CCO to do Westinghouse nuclear servicing, and she's bullish on clean energy. Poised to do well. Yield is 5.77%, and dividends grow 5% a year.

(Analysts’ price target is $39.39)
BUY

Undervalued. Well run. Diverse assets. Lots of hydro, as well as solar and wind, both in NA and globally. One of the leading players internationally. Huge increase in demand in electricity from data centres and AI; many of the hyperscalers want to use clean energy. Deal with MSFT.

Near-term underperformance and tax-credit concerns from the "big, beautiful bill", but long-term trend toward renewables is intact.

DON'T BUY

Diversified. Trying to find momentum. About 5% upside to price target. EPS growth and revenue have been down. She'd stay away until you see some strong numbers. Decent dividend yield of ~5.5%.

DON'T BUY

The chart for AQN tells the story for the sector.

Seeing signs of improvement. Both AQN and NPI have moved above 200-day (40-week) moving average, a positive. Especially so because a lot more quant funds are moving $$ in the markets, and one of the triggers they look at is whether or not it's above that technical level. It it's above, they can buy it; if not, either they can't buy it or they short it. Likes the regulated utilities -- FTS, H, EMA, CU, CPX.

If he were less cautious, he'd be more bullish. Not a big fan. More of a value play. Technically, they've been laggards. Better places to put your $$.