Barclays Bank PLCBCSHOLDFeb 03, 2015Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 04, 2026. Market Open.
UK banking sits somewhere between the Swedish/Canadian model and the US model. Fewer players, strong and well-protected balance sheets, growing organically. It's OK, but you are exposed to the UK and its pressures on consumers, housing, and the economy. Valuation is OK. He'd prefer a Canadian pick. Yield is 2.9%.
Best European bank? European banking is difficult, given negative interest rates. Best in class is Barclay's for its investing banking business or Lloyd's Banking. There should be more consolidation here, but it's difficult in Europe (look at ATD'B trying to buy Carrefour this month).
Thinks interest rates will rise in the US 1st, followed by the UK. If we see interest rates rise within 6-18 months in the US, he thinks the UK will be at least 18 months behind. UK economy is strengthening quite nicely, so continental Europe will be behind that. The big catalyst will be higher interest rates. Also, the government still has an interest in it. At these levels it is fine.