David Driscoll
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya
BBVA-N
WAIT
Jun 24, 2010
50% of revenues are coming from outside of Spain. Although stock price is down 40% (the same as Spanish index) you have to understand it is not where they are domiciled but where they are doing business. Doing very well in Mexico and South America. Wait to see what credit quality will look like among all the banks over the next couple of quarters.
(A Top Pick Dec 8/04. Down 8.7%.) In the midst of an acquisition in Italy which is why the stock has been going sideways for the last little while. Offers almost a 4% dividend yield. You get diversification into Spain, Mexico and South America.
Actually made money in the last quarter. They were up $500 million US although they did take a hit on the Madoff situation, which caused a charge off of $300 million. Half their business is in Spain and the rest in Latin America. Although Latin America grew .5% last year is starting to slow. Dividends were reduced.
Cheap at 7.5-8 times earnings with a 5.6% yield. Probably one of the best run banks globally. Expense ratio is only about 42%. Half of its earnings come from emerging markets. The difficulty, it’s a Spanish bank and even though it’s well run, there is a big exposure to Spain and Portugal (25% of their earnings). (See Top Picks.)
Historically it has been a very, very well run bank. However, he would put it in the same category as the UK banks. Not the place to be right now. 5.6% yield may not be safe.
Doesn’t own any Spanish banks and doesn’t know why anyone would. The Spanish market has a tremendous amount of overcapacity. Spanish lenders say that the origination spreads on new loan production just keeps on compressing, which tells him there is absolutely no point in being involved.
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