Opinions
David Driscoll
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya
BBVA-N
BUY
Nov 03, 2005
Very bullish on this stock. A spanish bank. Investing in Mexico where there is growth. Still more upside with a good dividend.
$17.840
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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HOLD
Actually made money in the last quarter. They were up $500 million US although they did take a hit on the Madoff situation, which caused a charge off of $300 million. Half their business is in Spain and the rest in Latin America. Although Latin America grew .5% last year is starting to slow. Dividends were reduced.
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WAIT
50% of revenues are coming from outside of Spain. Although stock price is down 40% (the same as Spanish index) you have to understand it is not where they are domiciled but where they are doing business. Doing very well in Mexico and South America. Wait to see what credit quality will look like among all the banks over the next couple of quarters.
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DON'T BUY
Cheap at 7.5-8 times earnings with a 5.6% yield. Probably one of the best run banks globally. Expense ratio is only about 42%. Half of its earnings come from emerging markets. The difficulty, it’s a Spanish bank and even though it’s well run, there is a big exposure to Spain and Portugal (25% of their earnings). (See Top Picks.)
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DON'T BUY
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