Stockchase Opinions

Lorne Steinberg Bank of America BAC-N HOLD Oct 02, 2018

Owns a couple of other comparable banks. American banks went down today even as the Dow rose to a record high. Global financial stocks are suffering as the yield curve gets flatter. The Fed indicated that a number of rate increases are coming in the next 12 to 18 months, but if those increases have their main effect on the short end of the yield curve, the result will be the dreaded inverted yield curve, which is almost always a precursor to a slowdown in economic activity. The current spread between the 2-year bond yield and the 10-year yield is only 25 basis points. Banks do best when the yield curve is rising, because banks borrow short and lend long. He would not sell a large bank at this point, but he wouldn’t be surprised to see their prices drop further because of the Fed rate cycle.

$29.580

Stock price when the opinion was issued

banks
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TOP PICK

Stock's fallen a fair bit, which was unexpected given the numbers reported last week. Lots of capital; lots of room to increase dividend and buy back shares. Environment is tough with potential recession. Trading at 1x book, 10x PE. Some of the best businesses in the world -- asset management, financial services, capital markets (one of the top 4 players globally), retail, credit cards. Yield is 2.74%.

(Analysts’ price target is $48.46)
BUY

High quality. Globalization is starting to move in a different direction, so this option provides a more domestic focus.

BUY

The US banks are cheap in valuation, and benefit from an M&A cycle that will come.

BUY

Keep a full weighting in the financial sector, which is primed for doing well in the next leg of the market. The sector is not expensive and has policy tailwinds. Banks are best capitalized in their history. It's a red herring--don't be scared off by Trump's Big, Beautiful Bill (and the fear of higher taxes).

BUY

Trades at 1.25x book value and almost a 3% dividend yield. Are growing revenues and increasing market share. Will benefit from IPOs and M&A. Wealth management generates recurring revenues. They keep costs low.

BUY

It reports Wednesday. Trades at only 13x PE, cheap because of the relentless selling by Berkshire Hathaway. But when that selling stops, the PE will be much higher. He expects a good quarter.

BUY

Is not effected by tariffs, unless tariffs impact the broader economy strongly. BAC reports tomorrow and he expects good numbers. (Bank earnings today sees improving net interest income, which bodes well for BAC.)

DON'T BUY

The only big bank that missed on the top line, due to a net interest income line miss. They maintained their full-year net interest income forecast. Falling short were markets and banking segments. Shares fell today.

BUY

They sounded reasonably positive in the recent quarter and he is positive on the space. Rate cuts should be supportive for net interest margins in the banking industry.

BUY

In the middle tier you have money-centre banks like BAC. It's not as inexpensive as Citi, and doesn't have quite the pedigree of JPM, but positioned well to do very good things on earnings with a steepening of the yield curve. He's overweight the banks.