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Alibaba Group HoldingBABACOMMENTNov 11, 2016Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 18, 2026. Market Open.
E-commerce and cloud computing (the most nascent piece). E-commerce is under a lot of strain. AI large-language models are compelling in Chinese market, but that entire market is very competitive and ripe for disruptors. A trading stock over the next 2-3 years. Not a buy-and-hold. Tactically a buy today, but be very careful.
Like Amazon, they dominate key secular growth areas in e-commerce, are in cloud computer though trade at only one third of Amazon's PE. Is a modest grower, but has a huge margin of safety. There's so much pessimism about tariffs now. Wait and see, but would be an opportunity if the tariffs are more bark than bite.
Short answer is yes, he likes it. He was selling into strength a few months ago. Now he's looking to reload. On a 5-year chart, you can see the massive bottoming pattern. Won't see numbers like the previous highs again. Probably worth $125-150 over the next few years, if they can stimulate the consumer and the consumer responds.
Chinese consumers have tons of savings, so the potential is there. Buy on pullbacks. One of the best value retail names out there. But you have to be OK with China exposure.
The Chinese are going to have to get to a point where other countries are, by having to trust their markets. The way to do that is through Hong Kong. Until that really becomes clear, people who cross the line get put in jail. This will be a work in progress. Perhaps a good proxy to look at is Amazon (AMZN-Q). The logistics of delivering products in China is very, very complicated. The density is very difficult. This company would save them going to the mall and putting up with traffic. Thinks there is a lot more upside. This is not going to be for the faint of heart.