Stock price when the opinion was issued
Having data centres in different regions is going to be increasingly important. AI is real, but absolutely ahead of itself. Phenomenal CEO. Up 30% YTD makes him choke on valuation. Best of breed tends to get a premium multiple. May get an opportunity to buy on a dip if we see some weak news coming out of the US.
It sold off after last Thursday's report: revenues +2-% YOY, EPS +44% YOY with semis and infrastructure software numbers also impressing. Also, guidance was healthy. However, shares ran up before that report, their non-AI semis business disappointed and guidance says it will be slow to recover. Also, AVGO didn't comment on current or prospective cuctoemrs. Gross margins for Q2 were in-line, but guidance was weak. He still likes the stock: AI semis revenues beat and are expected to grow next quarter from $4.4 to $5.1 billion. Their networking side is also growing.
One of the things his team's looking at right now is that it seems some of the regulations surrounding the semiconductor industry will be reduced (specifically China, but other countries as well). That could mean an expanded market for the semi manufacturing equipment companies, such as KLAC. AVGO has also been a strong performer, and he owns some NVDA. Those two names have strong relative price performance, are economically sensitive, cyclical, and have pricing power.
He is not a big fan of semiconductors at this time. In general, he wants to see good fundamentals that are confirmed by good technicals. At this point, the Broadcom technicals are not good. It has broken trend and for that reason he would not step into it. Regarding the semiconductor cycle, he thinks there is less downside this time than there has been traditionally because there are so many new categories that are creating accelerating demand for semiconductors, such as AI, machine learning, and autonomous driving. These will fuel demand even in a downturn. He would also not buy a semiconductor company based on its dividend growth--semiconductor companies should be showing strong revenue growth. He would wait until the chart looks better and if the fundamentals still look good, then he would buy. (Analysts’ price target is $287.16)