Opinions Jason Del Vicario
Activision BlizzardATVIDON'T BUYJun 01, 2021
$96.68
Stock price when the opinion was issued
$94.42
As of Oct 12, 2023. Market Open.
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SELL
Hold tight or sell with pending takeover?
From today's price, $5.50 is in play. As a shareholder, you have to decide if it's worth holding onto your shares to get your $95 per share. There is a chance that the FTC is successful in challenging the US court order, in which case you'd want to exit now. He'd probably take his money and go, as there's a lot to be said for certainty.
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PARTIAL BUY
The US regulator permitted the Microsoft deal, but the UK regulator still has to decide. He added ATVi shares today.
Kim BoltonOwned
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COMMENT
UK blocks Microsoft's takeover
MSFT will likely appeal and likely lose. The deal is probably dead. Also, the EU will weigh in. There's a $3 billion break-up fee for MSFT to pay ATVI.
Joe TerranovaOwned
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Premium contentTOP PICK
Activision Blizzard, Inc. connects and engages the world through epic entertainment. A member of the Fortune 500 and S&P 500, Activision Blizzard is a leading interactive entertainment company. It delights hundreds of millions of monthly active users around the world through franchises including Activision's Call of Duty® and Crash Bandicoot™, Blizzard Entertainment's World of Warcraft®, Overwatch®, Hearthstone®, Diablo®, and StarCraft®, and King's Candy Crush™, Bubble Witch™, and Farm Heroes™. Headquartered in Santa Monica, California, Activision Blizzard has operations throughout the world. Social media mentions are up 500% in the past 24h.
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Premium contentTOP PICK
Currently trading around $75 with an accepted buyout from Microsoft at $95 a share. A potential 26% arbitrage gain. The spread can be explained by the lack of a set date for when the deal would happen and the chance of it getting canceled. Social media mentions are up 333% over the last 24h.
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Premium contentTOP PICK
Microsoft recently announced the acquisition of the company. Has been facing a corporate culture crisis for the past year. Investors and employees optimistic that the takeover will benefit the company culturally and strategically. Social media mentions are up 1039% over the past week.
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DON'T BUY
Among the biggest losers on the S&P in 2021
#4, down 28%. Tricky. It could be considered a Covid, Peloton-like stock, but the other videogame companies haven't been hit as hard. Maybe it's due to ATVI delaying several new games. The elephant in the room, though is the CEO, facing a serious corporate culture viewed by Wall Street as frat boy.
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BUY ON WEAKNESS
Getting more compelling at these levels. Has stumbled with harassment lawsuits. Have a solid pipeline of franchises. Working on deepening the engagement of users. Beat on Q2. This name is trading at 18x 2022 with 11% compounding growth rate. Not cheap enough yet. Buy in the low $70s.
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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Sep 21/20, Down 3%) Got out, then bought back in around $80. Buy in tranches of $72, 65, and 57. Negative press releases dragged on the stock. Need some distance from those. Fundamentals remain strong. Build a position here in stages.
Kim BoltonOwned
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BUY
Price target of $97.75, still a decent runway ahead. Litigation drove the stock down. Just reported, with great results on top and bottom lines. Litigation is still there, but firing on all cylinders. Demand is very strong.
Kim BoltonOwned
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Premium contentPAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Dec 29/20, Up 4.1%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with ATVI has triggered its stop at $84. We recommend covering the balance of the position at this time. Combined with the previous recommendation to cover 50% of the position, this will result in a combined return on investment exceeding 11%.
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SELL
Allan Tong’s Discover Picks The sexual harassment suit contains allegations that have yet to be tested in court, however, the Warcraft debacle is fact. If you’re an ESG| investor, then ATVI is toxic. If you’re not, then these recent headlines raise red flags about how Activision is run and raise doubts about the company’s future performance. The Warcraft III report alone is troubling, enough to avoid this stock. Another point to consider is ATVI’s chart. Even before either bombshell landed, ATVI shares had been tumbling for a month while other tech stocks and the Nasdaq had been touching new highs. It also didn’t help that investors consider video game stocks as pandemic plays. I disagree with this; people will continue to play video games regardless of Covid. Read The Disney Stock (DIS) is coming back, Blizzard Stock is a Sell (ATVI) and the new BARK Stock as a speculative buy. for our full analysis.
Stockchase DiscoverOwned
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PARTIAL SELL
Makes up 27% of the caller's portfolio He doesn't know about veracity of the sexual harassment accusation and their alleged "frat boy culture" (the state of California has launched a suit this week), but all the video game companies are viewed as pandemic plays. Wait two more quarters. However, if you hold 27% of your portfolio in ATVI, trim it to 15%. ATVI is well run.
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The Saudis selling Canadian oil and buying ATVI He doesn't read too much in the Saudis diversifying into videogames. ATVI has a stable, long history of free cash flow returns on tangible assets (generally over 20%), so he likes that. Their capex-sales is low so they're asset-light, also good. But they falter in incremental return on incremental equity, which is how much free cash flow they generate on invested capital of 1, 3 or 5 years. ATVI's return fluctuates. Why? He suspects videogame companies have hit-and-miss game releases. (EA falls into the same category.) He avoids such stocks given this hit or miss risk.