Opinions
Tyler Mordy
Deutsche X-trackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares
ASHR-N
COMMENT
Sep 20, 2016
$24.650
Stock price when the opinion was issued
E.T.F.'s
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(A Top Pick Sept 20/16. Up 19%.) In the last 5 years, China has been everybody’s favourite whipping boy. His view has been completely different. 40% of the holdings are Chinese banks. China is making some good progress towards economic rebalancing. The rise of the Asian consumer is the biggest macro story of the next decade. He just sold this today as it had become very overbought.
E.T.F.'s
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Sep 06/18, Up 17%) Everybody's favourite whipping boy in 2018 was China during the trade war, but he expects a long, secular bull market in China going forward. Good valuations; China's bank earnings are 6x only. China is a complicated market though, because of sprawling securities around the world, but ASHR covers mainland Chinese stocks and heavily weights the banks.
E.T.F.'s
TOP PICK
It is the largest 300 companies trading on mainland China. He thinks the trade wars are a trading opportunity. China is now reflating. They will start to change into an earnings-driven theme instead of a policy-driven theme. It is a long journey from an export-driven market to a consumer-driven market.
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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick May 13/19, Up 15%) This was recommended during the height of the China-US trade war, which was crazy to suggest at the time. August was the best time to buy this. In China, no one is under any illusion that growth is slowing. Maybe, the Chinese feel, are getting accustomed to Trump.
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(A Top Pick July 22/16. Up 1.25%.) Probably his most controversial pick and relates to perceptions of the marketplace that China is about to embark on an economic crash and are going to devalue their currency. His view is that the slowdown was coordinated by policymakers. China is on a longer running slow down, and he can see it going down to 3% GDP in the next few years. The market has really punished the stocks there, particularly the Chinese banking sector. This is a multiyear hold.