The Panic-Proof Portfolio (Stockchase Research)
Aphria Inc
APHA-T
TOP PICK
Dec 17, 2020
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our recommendation of APHA as a TOP PICK is based on recently announced news of TLRY acquiring APHA for a 23% stock price premium. Combined the companies will be the largest cannabis producer in the world, which will allow a unique ability to benefit from economies of scale in production, marketing, and distribution. APHA shareholders will receive 0.83 shares of TLRY and will ultimately own 62% of the combined outstanding shares -- essentially a reverse takeover. We would buy this with stop-loss at $6.75, looking to achieve $12.25 -- upside of over 23%. Yield 0% (Analysts’ price target is $13.00)
All the pot stocks have been super volatile. You have to have a stomach for this. If you are not experienced, don’t go into this. If you believe in the group longer term, he would not go into this one. He prefers WEED-T or TLRY-Q.
Controversy over short-seller allegations and a lowball bid in a takeover attempt that puzzled investors. This has been rebounded off its lows but he can't accept the high valuations of these cannabis companies, some being extreme, and based on speculation.
There was a very, very convincing short seller report as a video a couple of years ago. What they need is a huge investor to come in. He does not want to own any of the big ones. In order to be a winner at this you need to partner up with someone big.
Edibles? This company is involved with another company that he owns that is involved in alcohol sales. The stock has been hurt lately. Edibles will help them, but government delays could impact that somewhat.
For all weed stocks: Momentum is gone. Weed stocks don't and won't make money for a long time, maybe 2-3 years. Meanwhile, there'll be a lot of volatility. There'll be a lot of M&A coming, too. This will be a flat line for a while.
Some of the downside momentum in the sector has stopped. This is certainly one of the companies he would look at. It looks like they are executing and growing.
(A Top Pick Dec 17/20, Up 24.8%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with APHA has achieved our $12.50 objective. To be disciplined, we recommend covering 50% of the position. We also recommend trailing up the stop to $8.00.
(A Top Pick Dec 17/20, Up 132%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with APHA has progressed well. We are recommending to trail up the stop (from $8) to $19. Along with our previous recommendation to cover 50%, this would all but guarantee an minimum return on investment of 60%.
(A Top Pick Dec 17/20, Up 93.6%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with APHA has triggered its stop at $19. To be disciplined, we recommend covering the position. Combined with the previous recommendation to cover 50%, this will create a net investment return of 59%.
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Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our recommendation of APHA as a TOP PICK is based on recently announced news of TLRY acquiring APHA for a 23% stock price premium. Combined the companies will be the largest cannabis producer in the world, which will allow a unique ability to benefit from economies of scale in production, marketing, and distribution. APHA shareholders will receive 0.83 shares of TLRY and will ultimately own 62% of the combined outstanding shares -- essentially a reverse takeover. We would buy this with stop-loss at $6.75, looking to achieve $12.25 -- upside of over 23%. Yield 0% (Analysts’ price target is $13.00)