Amazon.com, Inc.AMZNBUYAug 04, 2023Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jul 10, 2026. Market Open.
He expects Amazon and Google to win the AI race. They have the money to build data centres and hire the best talent. He trims when the share price rises, and buys when the price declines. AMZN is one of the best companies in the world and is a long-term hold. Their retail and cloud (the leader) businesses are growing.
His preference is MSFT, and he'd buy today. Valuation is ~20x PE -- very fair valuation for business with good outlook for earnings growth for next 3-5 years. A bit more value than AMZN right now. Business model supports a better compounding over the long run, and generates significantly more FCF. Late to the AI race, and that's the reason for the selloff.
No issues with AMZN. Very well run, targeting new markets. You can't own all the tech companies, so you have to pick your spots.
Looking at a longer-term chart, not a huge growth rate for a company of this size with its level of market share in cloud computing. Recent pop, but he's troubled by capex spending and its issuing debt. Have to ask what's the value proposition?
If you own it, don't sell, but don't back up the truck either.
His favourites right now are AMZN, NVDA, and MSFT. They're all going higher.
On the capex spend, sometimes it's a leap of faith. You're relying on these companies having some of the smartest people in the world with the most disposable capital. And those people really believe it's not a bridge to nowhere.
Undoubtedly, some companies are overdoing it and there will be another side to the mountain. But we don't know when that will be.
Viewers are probably thinking, "Aw, Kim, you picked all the big companies." But at the stage of where the market is, these big companies can definitely go higher in price. Even if something comes out of left field, these companies have the ability to work through it.
Tremendous AI momentum. AWS is a cash cow. Also has advertising; a hidden moat, because they know what we're buying. No dividend.
Operating margins came in 3x better than expectations. There were strong results in this report and investors have been waiting a long time for that. Earnings have been suppressed by all their reinvestments and this will continue. Amazon won't be greatly impacted by moves in interest rates, though the sector has. This will rebound when we end the rate-hiking cycle--and we're near that. Amazon has more growth potential than Apple. Despite its size, Amazon still has only a small portion of global sales. Apple still has growth in services, emerging markets, but the installed base of users is enormous at 2 billion. Apple is more of a maturing company, and that's okay; Apple is predictable. Apple trades at a high PE of 30x, but that isn't sustainable for the next several years.