Stockchase Opinions

Gordon Reid Amazon.com, Inc. AMZN-Q BUY Feb 08, 2022

Lots of room to expand. Reported excellent earnings last week, though there was an adjustment given their Rivian holdings. Still, impressive. They are growing into their earnings, so their PE is coming down. This happens with great companies like Apple and Facebook before.
$3206.460

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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BUY ON WEAKNESS

He believes in it. Was surprised by the quarter, namely AWS, the cloud. Ultimately, he likes their business model a lot, a hybrid of the consumer business and AWS. Trades at 30x forward PE, which some say is expensive. It would be a lot lower if they stopped their capex spending (on AI). There's no catalyst in immediate sight. If shares fall further, he will add.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

It was coming into resistance and having a tough time leading to the report. Even if they had a great report, shares would have struggled around $206. MSFT had a monster report which raised the bar for cloud, so that's why Amazon is getting hit. He owns enough shares now, and won't add, but for someone entering, wait a few days for shares to settle.

BUY

She likes it and is adding to her position. It scores 9 out of 10 fundamentally and is re-writing the rules of AI in automation in the retail space. It is looking at optimization - robots can do 40% more in packaging. Amazon's general AI business is growing in the triple digits. Revenue is up 22%. She is watching the supply side which is little bit lagging. Same day delivery is expanding and it is doing well in cottage country.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jul 18/24, Up 22%)

Is the greatest retail business in the world. Also, AWS is strong. Is trading at a reasonable PE, unlike the past. The earnings have caught up. Will hit $300-400 within 18 months. 

TOP PICK

Global leadership in e-commerce. Cloud infrastructure AWS is #1 in the world. Margin expansion of ads helping earnings growth. Capex in AI will assist productivity, increase earnings, and reinforce cloud leadership. Recent earnings and revenue beat expectations. Retail margins are improving. 

Paying 33x forward PE for 17% growth. Premium valuation, but there's no other AMZN out there. On the verge of a technical breakout, which should lead to higher prices. No dividend.

(Analysts’ price target is $262.47)
TOP PICK

The e-commerce business is the largest part but you should focus on the second largest business which is web services and growing faster than e-commerce. Also focus on the third largest business which is advertising. It is much more profitable than e-commerce and grew at at 23% in the last quarter. Earnings and profits in this division are growing faster than the top line. It is starting to deliver same day fresh groceries in the U.S. to 2300 towns and cities and 4000 for one day delivery. 40% of all retail consumer sales is consumer packaging and groceries.
Buy 76  Hold 6  Sell 0

(Analysts’ price target is $263.08)
COMMENT

The question was on his opinion of these two companies. They're different sizes and in different spaces. What will the business models look like. Both should continue to do well. He owns Amazon which is among the AI leaders. Interest rates will continue to drive the markets.

BUY

Scores 9 for fundamentals. She added during April's pullback. They can reinvented across sectors, including logistics (more efficient than ever), AWS is picking up again at 18% growth, and ads grew 23% last quarter.

COMMENT

Has had weakening relative strength since January 2025. Just hovering above 200-day MA. That's a pretty good indicator of the health of the consumer.

WATCH

S&P is at new highs, but not this name. Chart shows what could be a double top (you have 2 peaks where a push higher failed). Old point of resistance ~$180 becomes support, and that's the neckline. If it pulls back and bounces off, then it's probably a consolidation. But if it breaks, look out below.

He did a recent video on how the Mag 7's are starting to not perform as the breadth broadens out.