Stock price when the opinion was issued
We believe quite strongly in the gold sector right now, and AEM still looks good. We would be comfortable buying some at current levels.
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Nice beat on recent earnings announcement. $600M in free cashflow. 3% higher production. Importantly, 3-6% lower costs than market expected. Very important that they maintained guidance for projects. Not cheap at 23x 2026 earnings.
Gold will keep working if clarity doesn't come from the US administration. Risk is that you get something that's necessary and sufficient from them; clarity and good policy would cause gold to fall off a lot, and the rest of the market will rally. Don't add here.
Gold is taking a big hit today, with spot gold down $36/oz. AEM Q4 EPS of $1.26 beat estimates of $1.16; revenue of $2.22B marginally missed estimates. EBITDA of $1.33B matched estimates. Margins were a record on good cost control. 847,000 ounces were produced in Q4 with all-in costs at $1,316. Mines performed well. Production guidance was steady, but this is likely the company being conservative. Net debt is now very low and the company is in excellent financial shape going forward. Shares slipped a bit but are up 127% in a year and we would be comfortable with the quarter and outlook.
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