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Stockchase Insights Agnico-Eagle Mines AEM-T BUY Feb 14, 2025

Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

Gold is taking a big hit today, with spot gold down $36/oz. AEM Q4 EPS of $1.26 beat estimates of $1.16; revenue of $2.22B marginally missed estimates. EBITDA of $1.33B matched estimates. Margins were a record on good cost control. 847,000 ounces were produced in Q4 with all-in costs at $1,316. Mines performed well. Production guidance was steady, but this is likely the company being conservative. Net debt is now very low and the company is in excellent financial shape going forward. Shares slipped a bit but are up 127% in a year and we would be comfortable with the quarter and outlook.
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TOP PICK

Biggest single equity holding he has in client portfolios. He did trim, as it got to be way too big a position. Like the gold price, has stagnated over the last few months. Sees it as portfolio protection, insulates from inflation and geopolitical concerns. Tariff issues are still to be resolved, and there's still the impact of tariffs to look at (earnings, inflation, interest rates, the dollar). 

Best gold-mining company in the world. Yield is 1.35%.

(Analysts’ price target is $194.46)
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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jul 08/25, Up 60.5%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly

Our PAST TOP PICK with AEM is progressing well.  To remain disciplined, we recommend trailing up the stop (from $143) to $161 at this time.

WAIT

It is a benchmark name but fully valued. Has an excellent management team. It faces a growth deficit relative to its peers but might have more torque to the upside. He likes B2 Gold which provides enormous opportunity in Mali and Indonesia. He is not too concerned about the political situations there but they are not as safe an area as Northern Ontario or Quebec.

WAIT

Go-to name (along with LUG) in the gold space. Rock star. Awesome chart. Looking at the 6-month chart, he's cautious. Starting to see some selling pressure in gold underneath the surface. Importantly, seasonality as we get through September-October is really weak for gold stocks; really picks up from November-April. 

Pretty good support ~$172.50, so that's where he'd prefer to step in.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Aug 22/24, Up 71%)

Trimmed lightly. Still one of the largest weights in dividend growers mandate. Would like to see more dividend increases, now that debt is close to zero. 

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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jul 08/25, Up 65.2%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly

Our PAST TOP PICK with AEM has achieved its objective at $192.  To remain disciplined, we recommend covering half the position at this time and maintaining the stop at $161.

PARTIAL SELL

Yesterday, he took just a little bit of gold out; on a 14% weighting, he sold around 2%. Doesn't own this one right now. If you're a longer-term player, gold has lots of room to go.

Gold looks a bit extended (temporarily). You can see that on the AEM chart; the breakout was around $80, had a good move, and now it's arcing off of the trendline.

BUY

Who knows where gold is going? He avoids commodity stocks, though. AEM is one of the best-run commodity companies. If you are positive gold, then buy this.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Surging earnings and production. EPS growth off the charts, partly due to gold prices hitting all-time highs. Very good asset base. Premier name. Exposed and levered to gold price swings. A bit extended on technical charts, overbought.

Prefers the silver market.

BUY

Still has growth, despite its big move recently and an extended valuation.