The Panic-Proof Portfolio (Stockchase Research) Adobe Systems ADBE-Q TOP PICK Nov 14, 2024

Their December results beat, but they lowered 2025 guidance by 1.5%. Shares fell 20%, an overreaction. Investors are worried about Adobe's pace of AI progress, but things should improve this year as they create more optimal pricing, including affordable rates for poorer customers. Their express product will compete with Canva. Meanwhile, they're targeting the enterprise market with GenStudio, an AI factory for advertisers. Note: the CEO of Eli Lilly recently bought $1 million of Adobe shares, as he sits on the board.

It's a show-me story: need to see them monetize AI. They have tremendous power to get in front of everyone, though, because everyone uses them.

It lowered its revenue guidance for the year by 1 1/2% but the stock fell by over 20% which was an over-reaction. We should see more progress with opportunities in the enterprise market and Adobe rolling out an express product. The CEO bought $1 million in stock recently.
Buy 33  Hold 12  Sell 2

Is -15% over the year. AI is cannibalizing at lot of their products. He moved out of this.

It reports Wednesday, the most important of the week. He bets it will break the spell of undeserved negativity.

It's been a tough stock the past year. People have been worried about the adoption of AI and the impact on Adobe, but Firefly has been encouraging and he expects more people will use this product.

He will continue to hold -it is at an attractive valuation and growing its top line by 10% and trades at 20X earnings. It is the industry Goliath in creative space. Analysts wonder about upstarts taking away business and are questioning why they aren't monetizing AI more substantially. However it isn't communicating this and can't separate it out in the features that are included in its products for which it could charge higher prices.

The stock has been an absolute disaster due to one reason: Adobe products face serious competition. They beat quarter after quarter (expectations are not lowered ahead of time, either). The competition is not as bad as people expect. Adobe is ridiculously cheap and unfairly sold given its growth rate, EBITDA and free cash flow. Hold and wait it out as they buy back shares.

Not the type of company that would suffer from anti-American sentiment. At first, AI enhanced its product abilities; but then this morphed into perhaps products would become obsolete. No reason to get in.

Trading ~17x forward PE with 14% growth rate, so not a bad valuation compared to other tech names. Tepid guidance brought stock down. Below 200-week MA, which is moving lower as well, not great signs.