Opinions
Don Vialoux
Barrick Gold
ABX-T
BUY
Aug 15, 2012
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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Pretty big strength in the last 6 months. If you look at the chart, seeing pretty big moves within a band. It wants to get above $24.50 before it takes a shot at $31, which is the peak from 2022. Want to see it break out and then keep momentum going.
Sometimes the biggest in any sector, especially gold, can be kind of mushy. Can be safe, but sometimes acts like dead money. The risk/reward may not be there.
Would recommend buying at the current share price. Has good list of projects, strong balance sheet and good management. Gold prices have been strong which is good for earnings. Margins continue to remain stable. Expecting better performance in Q4. Share price is at a good place to buy.
He's been lightening up on gold. With a strong USD, and interest rates possibly being higher, gold may take a few steps back. The two biggest names, NGT and ABX, have really shown miserable production growth. Underperformed the group for a number of years now. They don't have the growth assets and their size means they can't accelerate as much.
If you're bullish on gold, a good strategy. He'd prefer to do it with AEM, but hard to do given that the stock price is so high.
Fine company, good assets, above-average quality base. Really good optionality to grow. Very cheap at 11.2x PE for 2025. Recent problems in different jurisdictions. Gold has suffered with the USD screaming higher. Might even be subject to tax-loss selling.
You could make $19-20 the strike price, and get paid a nice premium, but the trouble often is that you're right about the direction of the stock, but you don't end up owning it. If it goes to $30, you miss out on making the big money. Options are a great tool that can add to your portfolio, but not always the way to go.
Ran into a real meat grinder with an African government (a military dictatorship). Shows the difference between those jurisdictions that are safe and those that aren't. Has NA holdings too, so it's not the end of the world. Stock's cheap. Not a bad buy if gold keeps on moving (which he expects).
Problems in Mali, and company's short-term performance depends on that outcome. High operating costs in Nevada goldfields. Has decided to be a mining company rather than a gold mining company, which an increasing amount of revenue coming from copper. Much growth will come from Pakistan project, which he likes but the market doesn't.
Loves to trade gold stocks as a seasonal trade, going in and out of them, especially this one which is a classic example. If you bought this and held it for a long time, you are not a happy camper. The key is to play the seasonal trade. This company recently had some internal changes so the 2nd quarter report basically had everything bad thrown into it. Now that all the bad is gone, look for some good. On a seasonal basis, it has been a good stock to buy late in July for a move right through until the end of September. This is now happening again. The 1st target is getting back to its breakdown point at about $38. If there is a real good move on gold, this could reach around $42 but he is not looking for this kind of a move.