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AirbnbABNBBUY ON WEAKNESSAug 17, 2026Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Aug 28, 2026. Market Open.
Trading at 25x forward PE for 10-12% growth. 200-day MA trending lower. Locked in sideways channel since 2022. Supply has matured much faster than expected. Regulatory risk in many cities. Reserve now/pay later platform leads to more cancellations.
He prefers a name like BKNG or EXPE (which he owns). EXPE owns Vrbo (competitor to ABNB), and is more diversified and better managed than most peers.
ABNB will likely do fine over the longer-term but currently, competition has been increasing and pricing has become less competitive vs alternatives. We also might question whether the experience is much better than hotels at this stage after extra fees and host expectations that are put on the guests around cleaning and so on. We ar ea bit agnostic on it. We think it is fine but also maybe not overly excited about it currently.
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Has looked at business. Company is founder led/owned, with light asset requirements. However, company doesn't have history of strong returns on capital. Will take time for business to prove itself. Also, worried about restrictions on business (banned in New York etc.). Good if already own, but would not invest more at this time.
Great company. Regulatory environment keeps changing on them because of the housing shortage in lots of places. Post-Covid travel explosion helped, but now slowing and that hurts. Competitors are taking their own game up a bit. When travel normalizes would be the time to take a look, as expectations will be more realistic.
EPS of 76c beat estimates of 68c. Revenue of $2.21B beat estimates by 2.5%. Airbnb demand softness -- especially for domestic travel in the US and EMEA -- is reflected in the platform's widening gap between room night and supply growth. Booking gains may taper to the low teens in 1Q, with the average daily rate likely to be a slight headwind amid tough comparisons. Though Airbnb's increased take rates for cross-border room nights aid revenue growth, this may be offset by lower occupancy rates and listings at competing online travel agencies. Adjusted Ebitda was again above consensus in 4Q, and the company's $6 billion announced buyback was likely aimed at offsetting stock compensation, which is high vs. tech peers. Overall, we are comfortable here. It is becoming highly profitable and not that expensive now at 31X earnings.
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Frustrating to own. Has a great product and CEO. Is up 32% this year. On Aug.6 they reported a stellar quarter: top and bottom line beat, 17% revenue growth, and gross booking value +16%. Their investments are paying off. North America and Europe grew around 9%. Customers are booking larger homes with more bedrooms. They gave strong guidance for Q4 and full year. AI is not hurting ABNB but enhancing it by helping ABNB ship 80% more features and improvements and in writing 60% of ABNB's engineering code and in helping resolve issues (customer support) without human intervention. AI will make search results more personalized. ABNB is adding more hotels to its listing. But ABNB trades at a high 34x forward PE while competition hasn't disappeared and regulation remains a constant risk in certain cities. He believes in ABNB, but he won't chase it at 34x PE. Wait for a pullback.