COMMENT
Geopolitical dangers have never been higher, given the horrific Sri Lankan terrorist attacks over the weekend, and Trump continues to restrict the flow of Iranian oil. Geopolitics does impact world markets....MSFT and Intel report this week and have both broken to new highs. They will indicate whether the broader rally will continue. The S&P and TSX hit record highs, but he doesn't see a strong economic backdrop. Half of Canadians are a few bucks away from insolvency. He feels the economy is fundamentally weak. We're in for potentially decades of low interest rates.
Unknown
COMMENT
How are daily stock fluctuations derived? A company's fundamentals. But also behaviour is having more and more an impact with extreme pessimism and extreme optimism that rarely reflects true value. Sometimes this means the noise (headlines) of the day. Also, algorithms are scanning headlines. Sharp fluctuations are becoming the norm.
Unknown
BUY ON WEAKNESS
An electronic payments ETF. He loves this space; the future is electronic money without paper money. That said, look at valuation. This space is sensitive to the economic cycle and can underperform during a market downturn. Loves this long-term, but buy during pullbacks.
Financial Services
PARTIAL SELL
Alerian MLP ETF
This is highly correlated to the energy sector. He owns a lot of this. This could hit $11 if the oil price continues to surge. He's been accumulating this at lower prices and will reduce his exposure towards that level--and doesn't expect the price to break out. Warning: this is a very sensitive sector, meaning it will underperform during a market pullback. This stock is more a trade than an investment.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
Consumer staples vs. consumer cyclicals In a downturn, you don't need to go to a restaurant, but you still need to eat. So, you will spend more at the grocers (perhaps a discount chain) than the restos. This doesn't necessarily mean that SXT will go up, but more money will flow into defensives vs. the cyclicals. XST is a place to hide, but not a guarantee for a rising stock price.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
Kirkland Lake Gold
He loves gold as an asset class, and he expects a 20% swing upward in 6-12 months. KL has performed well, but he prefers diversification instead of a specific gold stock, like the ZGD-T ETF.
precious metals
DON'T BUY
As a registered investment We're late in the cycle and yield curves are starting to invert, so he doesn't like the banks. The banks won't break out, so he's underweight banks in Canada or America. That said, don't sell them all, because the dividends are good.
E.T.F.'s
DON'T BUY
An American bank ETF Warnign: there's only a minor dividend on American banks, and this space is not a time now for new money.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
Educational Segment. The price of oil Oil prices are moving up in Canada and America and rubbing against the 200-day average. Oil prices move in two ways. One is the supply push; the other is demand pull. When prices rise because supply is constrained, that's supply push, which is not a good way for prices to rise. The reason is ultimately economic output is going down--we're producing less. This is happening now in Alberta. The bullish move is the demand pull, where a growing economy propels rising prices rise which increases output to meet supply. This is good growth, but we're not seeing that now. Instead, we are in supply push. Sure, the price can still break-out, but there's resistance and that rise won't be sustainable. He'd rather sell into that rally.He doubts that the oil price will break out and he would sell during a rally. Now, it's a short-term rally driven by traders and speculators. He doesn't see $100 oil coming. Canadian oil stocks, though, are undervalued and need a demand increase.
Unknown
BUY
KL-T He loves gold as an asset class, and he expects a 20% swing upward in 6-12 months. KL has performed well, but he prefers diversification instead of a specific gold stock, like the ZGD-T ETF.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
The US market was a solid green to him for many years---until December 2018. It's now yellow. He's now raising cash, though the markets rebounded nicely since Xmas Eve. Data says that the global economy is slowing a bit. Geopolitics worry him in the States with the Mueller Report. Trump's threat to cut off Iranian oil is driving up today's oil price, but the world's biggest customer is China. Also, there's more oil supply than demand.
Unknown
BUY
Chevron Texaco
He likes the oil space; it's cheap. He prefers Exxon Mobil, but CVX is cheaper and a good stock. $127.80 is his target price, a modest upside. Good 4% dividend.
integrated oils
DON'T BUY
BlackBerry
There are still no earnings. They're breaking even. The stock has roared ahead of expectations, though. He still wants to see earnings momentum.
electrical / electronic
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Endo International
He's recommend this before and owns a lot of it. It reports earnings on May 9 and likely nothing will happen till then. Buy at $6-7. The stock fell last year, because all the generic drug-makers are vulnerable to lawsuits from American states during the opioid crisis. Endo has a pill more powerful than oxy contin Expects good earnings.
Healthcare
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Ball Corporation
It's hit all-time highs since December. This sector, packaging, has taken off. Wait for a pullback to $44.
packaging / containers