PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jun 13/24, Up 8%)

Covid saw overspending by consumers, then underspending, now normalizing. Rising interest rates have affected lower-income US households, and that's showing up in HD traffic numbers. In US, over 50% of homes are over 40 years old; long-term secular trend to repair and modernize. 

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jun 13/24, Up 20%)

All its businesses are very profitable, with operating margins in 50% range. Recurring revenue stream from subscriptions. Great businesses, very scalable. 

WEAK BUY

Likes the railway sector. Oligopolies; infrastructure will never be rebuilt. Its acquisition of KSU will likely be the last acquisition in that area. Somewhat cyclical, but its transport of so many essential goods means it will always have underlying business. Decent pricing power, as rail is less expensive than trucking.

Stock pulled back on trade tariff concerns, as Mexico is a big route for them. Something will be ironed out. Attractive entry point, but see her Top Picks.

BUY

Cloud business is the growth driver, sort of subsidizing the retail operations. Retail margins are much lower, only mid-high single digits. Using automation to try to decrease cost of delivery. Prime memberships provide nice recurring revenue stream. Investing in AI, which will benefit retail. Very well run and focused. Hasn't fully recovered from fears of tariffs impacting volumes.

In her firm's growth equity fund. But the pullback is prompting her to consider it for segregated accounts.

WEAK BUY

Big acquisition a year ago increased presence in US, and that will be its growth driver. It's fine as an income stock, with a nice yield. But see her Top Picks.

HOLD

Has done well this past year. Decent income stock. In the financial services sector right now, her preference is the Canadian banks. But you can continue to hold this name. Its focus on services means she's not worried about impact of tariffs.

DON'T BUY

Seven & I negotiations are a big overhang. If deal goes through, anti-competition reviews will be required. Plus, would likely need to issue equity to fund it. Integration risk. To conserve cash, company's stopped buying back stock until this gets resolved. US operations are seeing softer traffic, with lower-income consumers spending less.

Low-growth area, so they've grown by acquisition. But now that they're so big, there's nothing left for them to buy. Trades at a discount, but lots of uncertainty on the name.

HOLD
Why the pullback?

We all knew Buffett would retire, but the announcement itself was unexpected. His successor is very well known. AAPL is a very big position, so potential headwinds with tariffs. Well run, defensive. Market rally since April has been more on the super-growth areas. Still a solid, long-term hold.

BUY

Does fluctuate a bit with the price of oil, but not as much as a producer. Attractive income name. Federal government's infrastructure plan would be positive for pipelines, albeit a few years away. Yield is close to 6%, and the dividend increases every year.

TRADE

Very high valuation. On any fears of potential slowing, stock moves quite a bit. People probably trade it a lot. Great company, democratizing e-commerce for everybody. Tariffs may impact volumes until we get more clarity.

TOP PICK

Pricing power. Good track record on safety. Last year, economy was weaker, and this hit the rails. Labour disruptions. Volumes were affected. Affirmed guidance after Q1 reporting, expects 10-15% EPS growth (assuming there's still volume growth and no recession). Valuation is now at a very attractive multiple compared to historical levels and to the group. 

Went public in 1995, and has increased dividend every year since. Yield is 2.49%.

(Analysts’ price target is $162.93)
TOP PICK

Good long-term hold for income. Regulated natural gas and electric utility. Over 1/2 of revenues come from the US. Diversified. Very defensible and visible cashflow stream because it's regulated. Increased dividend for 51 consecutive years. In regions where data centres are being built. Yield is 3.81%.

(Analysts’ price target is $67.50)
TOP PICK

Treats, transports, and tests water (drinking and wastewater). Water is a scarce resource; 70% of the earth is water, but only about 2% is drinkable. Aging infrastructure in developed countries needs to be refurbished. Lots of industries require water. One of the few pure-play, publicly traded water companies, and so it trades at a premium. 

International, with 50% of earnings coming from the US. Going through an operating margin improvement program, to refine focus on customers and products that are most lucrative. Yield is 1.24%.

(Analysts’ price target is $143.50)
PARTIAL BUY
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

BBAI provides AI 'decision intelligence' solutions for defense, national security, supply chain management, etc. It has government contracts which provide a steady and growing backlog, but it is small ($1.7B market cap), it is not yet profitable, and it is free cash flow negative. Sales growth is OK (high single-digits to low-double digits), and it trades at a fairly expensive valuation of 9.8X forward sales. We like its momentum, but it is a highly volatile stock with no positive free cash flows - we would be fairly cautious at this time. 

In general, we prefer using percentage of portfolio, and for our model portfolios, we tend to initiate a starter position around a 1.0% to 1.5% weighting. 
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BUY
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

ATD has a lot of available firepower, and has indicated there are still 'lots' of acquisition opportunities if 7/11 fails. It does get harder to grow as the company gets bigger, but we do not think its M&A run is over yet. We would be comfortable buying this stock if one has a 5-year timeframe. Management has proven itself over and over. 
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