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It was a good quarter. But it is important to note that one quarter does not make a trend, and there is still lots of work to be done here. It is still in turnaround mode. It still has a massive amount of debt. It is cheap, though, and the quarter might see shorts start to cover a bit. So the trend will likely be 'up' and the worst 'could' be over here. But there remains plenty of risk and we would prefer to see another quarter or two of continued improvement, and even pay more once the turn is indeed fully established and on a firm foothold. Much could still go wrong here.
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A competitor reported softer results which took some of the wind out of the sails of the shares and in general, a lot of these more economically sensitive names have seen these larger drawdowns on no real news. Fear of higher rates is likely having an impact as investors become concerned on its impact on economic activity and homebuilding. At 14.4X forward earnings, we think URI looks fine here. We always like having 'more' information especially when earnings are so close so might wait for that even before adding but overall don't see much fundamentally that has changed here.
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Much of the weakness is likely due to concerns over a homebuilding slowdown, as rates have moved higher and the whole space has seen a bit of a drawdown. We see no real news here and while it is a bit of an extreme downdraft, investor boredom/sentiment could be playing a role as well. Longer-term, we wouldn't be too concerned here. It is a well run company and is growing organically as well as through acquisitions while trading at 14.7X forward earnings and 8% to 10% EPS growth expected for the next few years.
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What is the P/E Ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio, or otherwise known as the “P/E” ratio, is a financial metric commonly used to measure how expensive a stock is compared to its earnings. The ratio can be rephrased as the amount that an investor is willing to pay for every $1 of earnings for a specific company. The ratio involves two components; the first is the ‘P’ portion, which is the current price per share of the stock, and the second is the ‘E’ portion, which is the Earnings Per Share (EPS) of the stock. For example: if Stock A has a current price per share of $30, and an EPS of $1, then the P/E ratio is 30X (calculated as: $30 Price / $1 EPS = 30X P/E). To maintain a stable P/E ratio over time, the price must appreciate at the exact same rate as the earnings per share. For instance, for the P/E to remain at 30X in the next year, if the share price increases by 10% from $30 to $33, then the EPS must also increase by 10% from $1 to $1.1 (calculated as $33 Price / $1.1 EPS = 30X P/E).
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We're burning off and will burn off more optimism. There are always uncertainties in the world, but optimism is high and so are valuations. A new US president is coming in and the US government carries a massive deficit of 6% of GDP, nearly twice of Canada's, while their interest rates are rising and potential trade wars. Meanwhile, Biden is further constricting the further transfer of chips to China--is this sound policy for America long term is a big question. Does this pile up on big companies like Nvidia and Apple, the latter of which does a lot of business in China and could face retaliatory measure by the Chinese government? Doesn't know, but possibly. Overall, investors are too optimistic as there are many risks around. Be cautious about most markets, including the U.S. The Russell 2000 is -10%, for example, so we are burning off excess, but there's more to come.
They're pushing AI and introducing a lot of services to customers. Good. He uses CRM software. They are increasing rates to customers by 9%. True, a lot of services are not necessary, so he's cancelled them for next year. Other companies will nip at CRM's heels as they roll out more AI. CRM is highly acquisitive. The high USD is hard on non-American customers.
He trimmed shares late last year and placed hedges in effect through March. The company got ahead of itself. The CEO in the last 2 conference calls pushed too hard AI, though they are a company can roll out AI enhancements to their Office 365 an cloud products. Also, they are vulnerable to European anti-trust moves. He himself won't buy it now, but you can buy it for the long term. He's up 60% on it over the last 2 years, so he's being prudent. It has burned off a lot of excess and sees it falling below $400 in a sloppy market. It will be capped at $450.
They need to change the CEO. Investors are totally perplexed by BCE's purchase of a US company--the strategy makes no sense. Expects someone to step in and radically change things. BCE does have a good balance sheet and assets and are raising the dividend (too far). The US expansion will be costly to compete down there. They should cut or remove the dividend. Everyone is telling BCE: do something. There's a mismatch in what they pay investors and their internal capital requirements.
Fair to say that the US and China are in a technological war. The war the US restricts China's access to chips, then the more China will build its own chips. The US can have superior chips for a while, but when China catches up, look out. It will be a powerful competitor to the US. Chip-making is cyclical. The US blocking such access may have good intentions, but could harm the US long term.
He buys the homebuilders only a recession when they're beaten up, below book value and things are really bad. The bulls say that demographics and concerns over immigration fuel housing demand. However, it looks like interest rates will be higher for longer, so affordability becomes a major issue. The new president's policies could be inflationary.
The ultimate spec. It loses money. Now at $3. A casino.